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Predictions › Norway › Vålerenga vs Fredrikstad
EliteserienSun 20 Sept, 12:30 Norway time

Vålerenga vs Fredrikstad prediction

Intility Arena

VålerengaHome
1.55 : 1.60
expected goals
FredrikstadAway
37%Valerenga
25%Draw
39%Fredrikstad
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.19

Quick answer

Our prediction for Vålerenga vs Fredrikstad is Fredrikstad to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19.

Prediction
Fredrikstad to win
Chance
39%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Vålerenga 1.6, Fredrikstad 1.6
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.19
Both teams to score
63%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
84% chanceFair price 1.192 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Fredrikstad to win and Over 2.5
25% chanceFair price 3.941 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Vålerenga 37%, the draw 25% and Fredrikstad 39%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Vålerenga took 2 points from their last 5 games and Fredrikstad took 12 from 5. Fredrikstad come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Vålerenga won 3 of their last 10 games at home. Fredrikstad won 3 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Vålerenga score 1.5 goals a game and let in 2.0. Fredrikstad score 1.1 and let in 1.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Vålerenga games and 12 of Fredrikstad games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Vålerenga won 0 and Fredrikstad won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Fredrikstad 1, Vålerenga 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Valerengarecent form-4%
  • Fredrikstadrecent form+4%
  • Valerengarest between games-5%
Valerenga form L D L D LFredrikstad form L W W W WHome edge in this league 34% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Vålerenga vs Fredrikstad: Fredrikstad shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Vålerenga host Fredrikstad in the Eliteserien on Sun 20 Sept, 12:30 at Intility Arena. Our prediction for Vålerenga vs Fredrikstad is Fredrikstad to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19.

Vålerenga form

Vålerenga have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 41 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, D, L, newest first.

Fredrikstad form

Fredrikstad have 8 wins, 2 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 35 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 7 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Vålerenga won 0, Fredrikstad won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Fredrikstad 1, Vålerenga 1.

Our call

We expect Vålerenga to score about 1.6 goals and Fredrikstad about 1.6. That points to Fredrikstad to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19. Our bold bet is Fredrikstad to win and Over 2.5 at 3.94.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

ValerengaFredrikstad
Games played2020
Wins58
Draws52
Losses1010
Goals scored3023
Goals conceded4135
Scored per game1.51.1
Conceded per game2.01.8
Home record3W 2D 5L5W 1D 3L
Away record2W 3D 5L3W 1D 7L
Clean sheets15%15%
Both teams scored50%55%
Over 2.5 goals55%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals83%1.21
Over 2.5 goals61%1.64
Over 3.5 goals39%2.59
Both teams to score63%1.58
Vålerenga or Draw61%1.63
Fredrikstad or Draw63%1.58
Vålerenga to win and Over 2.525%3.95
Fredrikstad to win and Over 2.527%3.72
Vålerenga clean sheet20%4.94
Fredrikstad clean sheet21%4.71

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.3%
1-28.5%
2-18.2%
2-26.6%
0-16.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Vålerenga vs Fredrikstad?

Our prediction for Vålerenga vs Fredrikstad is Fredrikstad to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19.

What is the score prediction for Vålerenga vs Fredrikstad?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect Vålerenga to score 1.6 goals and Fredrikstad 1.6.

Will both teams score in Vålerenga vs Fredrikstad?

Both teams to score has a 63% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Vålerenga last 20 games and 11 of Fredrikstad last 20.

How are Vålerenga playing?

Vålerenga have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 41 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, D, L, newest first.

How are Fredrikstad playing?

Fredrikstad have 8 wins, 2 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 35 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 7 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Vålerenga and Fredrikstad last met?

It ended Fredrikstad 1, Vålerenga 1. In the last 1 meeting Vålerenga won 0 and Fredrikstad won 0.

What is the best bet for Vålerenga vs Fredrikstad?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.19, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Valerenga against Fredrikstad. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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