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Predictions › Norway › Vålerenga vs Tromso
EliteserienSun 1 Nov, 18:15 Norway time

Vålerenga vs Tromso prediction

Intility Arena

VålerengaHome
1.87 : 1.90
expected goals
TromsoAway
38%Valerenga
22%Draw
39%Tromso
Eagle safe pickOver 2.5 goals
1.35

Quick answer

Our prediction for Vålerenga vs Tromso is Tromso to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.35.

Prediction
Tromso to win
Chance
39%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Vålerenga 1.9, Tromso 1.9
Best bet
Over 2.5 goals at 1.35
Both teams to score
72%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 2.5 goals
74% chanceFair price 1.351 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Tromso to win and Over 2.5
30% chanceFair price 3.341 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Vålerenga 38%, the draw 22% and Tromso 39%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Vålerenga took 5 points from their last 5 games and Tromso took 5 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Vålerenga won 3 of their last 10 games at home. Tromso won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Vålerenga score 1.6 goals a game and let in 2.2. Tromso score 1.7 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Vålerenga games and 9 of Tromso games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Vålerenga won 1 and Tromso won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Tromso 4, Vålerenga 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 2.5 goals has a 74% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Valerengarecent form-3%
  • Tromsorecent form-1%
Valerenga form D L D L DTromso form D D W L LHome edge in this league 31% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Vålerenga vs Tromso: Tromso shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Vålerenga host Tromso in the Eliteserien on Sun 1 Nov, 18:15 at Intility Arena. Our prediction for Vålerenga vs Tromso is Tromso to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.35.

Vålerenga form

Vålerenga have 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 44 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, L, D, newest first.

Tromso form

Tromso have 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Vålerenga won 1, Tromso won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Tromso 4, Vålerenga 0.

Our call

We expect Vålerenga to score about 1.9 goals and Tromso about 1.9. That points to Tromso to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.35. Our bold bet is Tromso to win and Over 2.5 at 3.34.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

ValerengaTromso
Games played2020
Wins48
Draws67
Losses105
Goals scored3234
Goals conceded4430
Scored per game1.61.7
Conceded per game2.21.5
Home record3W 3D 4L5W 4D 1L
Away record1W 3D 6L3W 3D 4L
Clean sheets5%35%
Both teams scored65%50%
Over 2.5 goals65%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals89%1.12
Over 2.5 goals73%1.38
Over 3.5 goals52%1.92
Both teams to score72%1.38
Vålerenga or Draw61%1.65
Tromso or Draw62%1.62
Vålerenga to win and Over 2.530%3.28
Tromso to win and Over 2.531%3.20
Vålerenga clean sheet15%6.65
Tromso clean sheet15%6.49

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-18.7%
1-27.8%
2-17.7%
2-27.3%
1-34.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Vålerenga vs Tromso?

Our prediction for Vålerenga vs Tromso is Tromso to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.35.

What is the score prediction for Vålerenga vs Tromso?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect Vålerenga to score 1.9 goals and Tromso 1.9.

Will both teams score in Vålerenga vs Tromso?

Both teams to score has a 72% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Vålerenga last 20 games and 10 of Tromso last 20.

How are Vålerenga playing?

Vålerenga have 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 44 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, L, D, newest first.

How are Tromso playing?

Tromso have 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Vålerenga and Tromso last met?

It ended Tromso 4, Vålerenga 0. In the last 2 meetings Vålerenga won 1 and Tromso won 1.

What is the best bet for Vålerenga vs Tromso?

Over 2.5 goals at 1.35, with a 74% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Valerenga against Tromso. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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