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Predictions › Brazil › Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians
BrasileiraoSat 24 Oct, 21:30 Brazil time

Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians prediction

Estádio São Januário

Vasco da GamaHome
1.79 : 1.02
expected goals
CorinthiansAway
55%Vasco
25%Draw
21%Corinthians
Eagle safe pickVasco da Gama or Draw
1.29

Quick answer

Our prediction for Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians is Vasco da Gama to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Vasco da Gama or Draw at 1.29.

Prediction
Vasco da Gama to win
Chance
55%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Vasco da Gama 1.8, Corinthians 1.0
Best bet
Vasco da Gama or Draw at 1.29
Both teams to score
54%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Vasco da Gama or Draw
77% chanceFair price 1.292 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Vasco da Gama to win and Over 2.5
34% chanceFair price 2.961 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Vasco da Gama 55%, the draw 25% and Corinthians 21%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Vasco da Gama took 10 points from their last 5 games and Corinthians took 0 from 5. Vasco da Gama come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Vasco da Gama won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Corinthians won 2 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Vasco da Gama score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.4. Corinthians score 1.0 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Vasco da Gama games and 9 of Corinthians games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Vasco da Gama won 0 and Corinthians won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Corinthians 1, Vasco da Gama 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Vasco da Gama or Draw has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Vascorecent form+4%
  • Corinthiansrecent form-7%
Vasco form D D W W WCorinthians form L L L L LHome edge in this league 40% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians: Vasco da Gama are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Vasco da Gama host Corinthians in the Brasileirao on Sat 24 Oct, 21:30 at Estádio São Januário. Our prediction for Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians is Vasco da Gama to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Vasco da Gama or Draw at 1.29.

Vasco da Gama form

Vasco da Gama have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Corinthians form

Corinthians have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Vasco da Gama won 0, Corinthians won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Corinthians 1, Vasco da Gama 0.

Our call

We expect Vasco da Gama to score about 1.8 goals and Corinthians about 1.0. That points to Vasco da Gama to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Vasco da Gama or Draw at 1.29. Our bold bet is Vasco da Gama to win and Over 2.5 at 2.96.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

VascoCorinthians
Games played2020
Wins65
Draws55
Losses910
Goals scored2220
Goals conceded2825
Scored per game1.11.0
Conceded per game1.41.3
Home record4W 2D 4L3W 1D 6L
Away record2W 3D 5L2W 4D 4L
Clean sheets20%30%
Both teams scored50%55%
Over 2.5 goals55%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals78%1.29
Over 2.5 goals53%1.88
Over 3.5 goals31%3.22
Both teams to score54%1.85
Vasco da Gama or Draw79%1.26
Corinthians or Draw45%2.20
Vasco da Gama to win and Over 2.535%2.87
Corinthians to win and Over 2.512%8.17
Vasco da Gama clean sheet36%2.79
Corinthians clean sheet17%5.97

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.7%
1-010.1%
2-19.8%
2-09.6%
0-06.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians?

Our prediction for Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians is Vasco da Gama to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Vasco da Gama or Draw at 1.29.

What is the score prediction for Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Vasco da Gama to score 1.8 goals and Corinthians 1.0.

Will both teams score in Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians?

Both teams to score has a 54% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Vasco da Gama last 20 games and 11 of Corinthians last 20.

How are Vasco da Gama playing?

Vasco da Gama have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, W, L, newest first.

How are Corinthians playing?

Corinthians have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Vasco da Gama and Corinthians last met?

It ended Corinthians 1, Vasco da Gama 0. In the last 1 meeting Vasco da Gama won 0 and Corinthians won 1.

What is the best bet for Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians?

Vasco da Gama or Draw at 1.29, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Vasco against Corinthians. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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