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Predictions › Brazil › Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo
BrasileiraoThu 29 Oct, 23:00 Brazil time

Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo prediction

Vasco da GamaHome
1.15 : 1.83
expected goals
FlamengoAway
23%Vasco
24%Draw
53%Flamengo
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.25

Quick answer

Our prediction for Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo is Flamengo to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

Prediction
Flamengo to win
Chance
53%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Vasco da Gama 1.1, Flamengo 1.8
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.25
Both teams to score
58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
80% chanceFair price 1.252 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Flamengo to win and Over 2.5
36% chanceFair price 2.811 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Vasco da Gama 23%, the draw 24% and Flamengo 53%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Vasco da Gama took 10 points from their last 5 games and Flamengo took 11 from 5. Flamengo come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Vasco da Gama won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Flamengo won 5 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Vasco da Gama score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.4. Flamengo score 1.9 and let in 0.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Vasco da Gama games and 10 of Flamengo games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Vasco da Gama won 0 and Flamengo won 0 with 2 draws. The last one ended Flamengo 2, Vasco da Gama 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Vascorecent form+4%
  • Flamengorecent form+3%
  • Vascorest between games-2%
  • Flamengorest between games-5%
Vasco form D W D W WFlamengo form D D W D WHome edge in this league 39% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo: Flamengo are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Vasco da Gama host Flamengo in the Brasileirao on Thu 29 Oct, 23:00. Our prediction for Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo is Flamengo to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

Vasco da Gama form

Vasco da Gama have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, W, W, newest first.

Flamengo form

Flamengo have 13 wins, 6 draws and 1 loss in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 12 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Vasco da Gama won 0, Flamengo won 0 and 2 games ended level. Last time out it finished Flamengo 2, Vasco da Gama 2.

Our call

We expect Vasco da Gama to score about 1.1 goals and Flamengo about 1.8. That points to Flamengo to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25. Our bold bet is Flamengo to win and Over 2.5 at 2.81.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

VascoFlamengo
Games played2020
Wins613
Draws56
Losses91
Goals scored2139
Goals conceded2712
Scored per game1.11.9
Conceded per game1.40.6
Home record4W 2D 3L8W 2D 0L
Away record2W 3D 6L5W 4D 1L
Clean sheets20%50%
Both teams scored45%50%
Over 2.5 goals50%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals80%1.24
Over 2.5 goals57%1.75
Over 3.5 goals35%2.87
Both teams to score58%1.72
Vasco da Gama or Draw47%2.11
Flamengo or Draw77%1.30
Vasco da Gama to win and Over 2.515%6.84
Flamengo to win and Over 2.536%2.81
Vasco da Gama clean sheet16%6.25
Flamengo clean sheet32%3.16

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.3%
1-29.8%
0-18.6%
0-28.5%
2-16.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo?

Our prediction for Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo is Flamengo to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

What is the score prediction for Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect Vasco da Gama to score 1.1 goals and Flamengo 1.8.

Will both teams score in Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Vasco da Gama last 20 games and 10 of Flamengo last 20.

How are Vasco da Gama playing?

Vasco da Gama have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, W, W, newest first.

How are Flamengo playing?

Flamengo have 13 wins, 6 draws and 1 loss in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 12 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, D, W, newest first.

What happened when Vasco da Gama and Flamengo last met?

It ended Flamengo 2, Vasco da Gama 2. In the last 2 meetings Vasco da Gama won 0 and Flamengo won 0.

What is the best bet for Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.25, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Vasco against Flamengo. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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