Predictions › Brazil › Vasco da Gama vs Internacional

BrasileiraoThu 19 Nov, 22:30 Brazil time

Vasco da Gama vs Internacional prediction

Estádio São Januário

Vasco da GamaHome

1.63 : 1.14

expected goals

InternacionalAway

48%Vasco

26%Draw

26%Internacional

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.29

Quick answer

Our prediction for Vasco da Gama vs Internacional is Vasco da Gama to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

Prediction: Vasco da Gama to win
Chance: 48%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Vasco da Gama 1.6, Internacional 1.1
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.29
Both teams to score: 55%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

77% chanceFair price 1.292 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Vasco da Gama to win and Over 2.5

30% chanceFair price 3.341 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Vasco da Gama 48%, the draw 26% and Internacional 26%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Vasco da Gama took 7 points from their last 5 games and Internacional took 7 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.
3
Home and away
Vasco da Gama won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Internacional won 1 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Vasco da Gama score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.6. Internacional score 1.2 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Vasco da Gama games and 10 of Internacional games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Vasco da Gama won 1 and Internacional won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Internacional 4, Vasco da Gama 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Vascorecent form+1%

Vasco form W W L L WInternacional form W L W L DHome edge in this league 40% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Vasco da Gama vs Internacional: Vasco da Gama are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Vasco da Gama host Internacional in the Brasileirao on Thu 19 Nov, 22:30 at Estádio São Januário. Our prediction for Vasco da Gama vs Internacional is Vasco da Gama to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

Vasco da Gama form

Vasco da Gama have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, D, newest first.

Internacional form

Internacional have 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 7 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Vasco da Gama won 1, Internacional won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Internacional 4, Vasco da Gama 1.

Our call

We expect Vasco da Gama to score about 1.6 goals and Internacional about 1.1. That points to Vasco da Gama to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29. Our bold bet is Vasco da Gama to win and Over 2.5 at 3.34.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Vasco	Internacional
Games played	20	20
Wins	7	5
Draws	4	6
Losses	9	9
Goals scored	25	24
Goals conceded	31	28
Scored per game	1.3	1.2
Conceded per game	1.6	1.4
Home record	4W 2D 4L	4W 3D 2L
Away record	3W 2D 5L	1W 3D 7L
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	77%	1.30
Over 2.5 goals	52%	1.91
Over 3.5 goals	30%	3.33
Both teams to score	55%	1.81
Vasco da Gama or Draw	74%	1.35
Internacional or Draw	52%	1.93
Vasco da Gama to win and Over 2.5	30%	3.30
Internacional to win and Over 2.5	15%	6.53
Vasco da Gama clean sheet	32%	3.11
Internacional clean sheet	20%	5.11

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.3%

1-09.6%

2-19.5%

2-08.4%

0-07.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Vasco da Gama vs Internacional?

Our prediction for Vasco da Gama vs Internacional is Vasco da Gama to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

What is the score prediction for Vasco da Gama vs Internacional?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Vasco da Gama to score 1.6 goals and Internacional 1.1.

Will both teams score in Vasco da Gama vs Internacional?

Both teams to score has a 55% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Vasco da Gama last 20 games and 12 of Internacional last 20.

How are Vasco da Gama playing?

How are Internacional playing?

What happened when Vasco da Gama and Internacional last met?

It ended Internacional 4, Vasco da Gama 1. In the last 2 meetings Vasco da Gama won 1 and Internacional won 1.

What is the best bet for Vasco da Gama vs Internacional?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.29, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Vasco against Internacional. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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