Predictions › Argentina › Vélez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia (Mendoza)

Argentina Liga ProfesionalSat 17 Oct, 23:00 Argentina time

Vélez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia (Mendoza) prediction

José Amalfitani

Vélez SarsfieldHome

1.54 : 0.81

expected goals

Gimnasia (Mendoza)Away

54%Vélez

27%Draw

19%Gimnasia (M)

Eagle safe pickVélez Sarsfield or Draw

1.27

Quick answer

Our prediction for Vélez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia (Mendoza) is Vélez Sarsfield to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Vélez Sarsfield or Draw at 1.27.

Prediction: Vélez Sarsfield to win
Chance: 54%
Most likely score: 1-0
Expected goals: Vélez Sarsfield 1.5, Gimnasia (Mendoza) 0.8
Best bet: Vélez Sarsfield or Draw at 1.27
Both teams to score: 44%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Vélez Sarsfield or Draw

78% chanceFair price 1.272 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Vélez Sarsfield to win and Over 2.5

28% chanceFair price 3.561 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Vélez Sarsfield 54%, the draw 27% and Gimnasia (Mendoza) 19%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Vélez Sarsfield took 9 points from their last 5 games and Gimnasia (Mendoza) took 5 from 5. Vélez Sarsfield come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Vélez Sarsfield won 5 of their last 11 games at home. Gimnasia (Mendoza) won 2 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Vélez Sarsfield score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.0. Gimnasia (Mendoza) score 1.2 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of Vélez Sarsfield games and 9 of Gimnasia (Mendoza) games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Vélez Sarsfield won 0 and Gimnasia (Mendoza) won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Gimnasia (Mendoza) 3, Vélez Sarsfield 2.
6
The safest bet
Vélez Sarsfield or Draw has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Vélez recent form+1%
Gimnasia (M)recent form-1%
Vélez rest between games-2%
Gimnasia (M)rest between games-2%

Vélez form D W D W LGimnasia (M) form L D L D WHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Vélez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia (Mendoza): Vélez Sarsfield are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Vélez Sarsfield host Gimnasia (Mendoza) in the Argentina Liga Profesional on Sat 17 Oct, 23:00 at José Amalfitani. Our prediction for Vélez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia (Mendoza) is Vélez Sarsfield to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Vélez Sarsfield or Draw at 1.27.

Vélez Sarsfield form

Vélez Sarsfield have 7 wins, 10 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 20 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, W, D, newest first.

Gimnasia (Mendoza) form

Gimnasia (Mendoza) have 8 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Vélez Sarsfield won 0, Gimnasia (Mendoza) won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Gimnasia (Mendoza) 3, Vélez Sarsfield 2.

Our call

We expect Vélez Sarsfield to score about 1.5 goals and Gimnasia (Mendoza) about 0.8. That points to Vélez Sarsfield to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Vélez Sarsfield or Draw at 1.27. Our bold bet is Vélez Sarsfield to win and Over 2.5 at 3.56.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Vélez	Gimnasia (M)
Games played	20	20
Wins	7	8
Draws	10	5
Losses	3	7
Goals scored	26	24
Goals conceded	20	25
Scored per game	1.3	1.2
Conceded per game	1.0	1.3
Home record	5W 4D 2L	6W 2D 1L
Away record	2W 6D 1L	2W 3D 6L
Clean sheets	30%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	45%
Over 2.5 goals	30%	45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	69%	1.46
Over 2.5 goals	42%	2.40
Over 3.5 goals	21%	4.76
Both teams to score	44%	2.26
Vélez Sarsfield or Draw	81%	1.23
Gimnasia (Mendoza) or Draw	46%	2.17
Vélez Sarsfield to win and Over 2.5	29%	3.50
Gimnasia (Mendoza) to win and Over 2.5	9%	11.31
Vélez Sarsfield clean sheet	45%	2.25
Gimnasia (Mendoza) clean sheet	21%	4.66

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-014.0%

1-112.6%

2-011.3%

0-010.3%

2-19.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Vélez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia (Mendoza)?

Our prediction for Vélez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia (Mendoza) is Vélez Sarsfield to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Vélez Sarsfield or Draw at 1.27.

What is the score prediction for Vélez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia (Mendoza)?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 2-0. We expect Vélez Sarsfield to score 1.5 goals and Gimnasia (Mendoza) 0.8.

Will both teams score in Vélez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia (Mendoza)?

Both teams to score has a 44% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Vélez Sarsfield last 20 games and 9 of Gimnasia (Mendoza) last 20.

How are Vélez Sarsfield playing?

How are Gimnasia (Mendoza) playing?

What happened when Vélez Sarsfield and Gimnasia (Mendoza) last met?

It ended Gimnasia (Mendoza) 3, Vélez Sarsfield 2. In the last 1 meeting Vélez Sarsfield won 0 and Gimnasia (Mendoza) won 1.

What is the best bet for Vélez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia (Mendoza)?

Vélez Sarsfield or Draw at 1.27, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Vélez against Gimnasia (M). A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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