Predictions › Argentina › Vélez Sarsfield vs Platense

Argentina Liga ProfesionalMon 5 Oct, 22:00 Argentina time

Vélez Sarsfield vs Platense prediction

José Amalfitani

Vélez SarsfieldHome

1.27 : 0.74

expected goals

PlatenseAway

48%Vélez

31%Draw

21%Platense

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.20

Quick answer

Our prediction for Vélez Sarsfield vs Platense is Vélez Sarsfield to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.20.

Prediction: Vélez Sarsfield to win
Chance: 48%
Most likely score: 1-0
Expected goals: Vélez Sarsfield 1.3, Platense 0.7
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.20
Both teams to score: 38%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

83% chanceFair price 1.202 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-0

16% chanceFair price 6.131 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Vélez Sarsfield 48%, the draw 31% and Platense 21%. The bookmakers agree and make Vélez Sarsfield the favourite at 1.87.
2
Recent form
Vélez Sarsfield took 9 points from their last 5 games and Platense took 4 from 5. Vélez Sarsfield come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Vélez Sarsfield won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Platense won 3 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Vélez Sarsfield score 1.3 goals a game and let in 0.9. Platense score 0.9 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of Vélez Sarsfield games and 8 of Platense games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Vélez Sarsfield won 1 and Platense won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Platense 0, Vélez Sarsfield 2.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 83% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Vélez recent form+1%
Platenserecent form-3%

Vélez form W D W L DPlatense form L W L L DHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Vélez Sarsfield vs Platense: Vélez Sarsfield are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Vélez Sarsfield host Platense in the Argentina Liga Profesional on Mon 5 Oct, 22:00 at José Amalfitani. Our prediction for Vélez Sarsfield vs Platense is Vélez Sarsfield to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.20.

Vélez Sarsfield form

Vélez Sarsfield have 8 wins, 9 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 18 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, D, D, newest first.

Platense form

Platense have 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Vélez Sarsfield won 1, Platense won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Platense 0, Vélez Sarsfield 2.

Our call

We expect Vélez Sarsfield to score about 1.3 goals and Platense about 0.7. That points to Vélez Sarsfield to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.20. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-0 at 6.13.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Vélez	Platense
Games played	20	20
Wins	8	5
Draws	9	6
Losses	3	9
Goals scored	25	18
Goals conceded	18	26
Scored per game	1.3	0.9
Conceded per game	0.9	1.3
Home record	5W 3D 2L	2W 5D 4L
Away record	3W 6D 1L	3W 1D 5L
Clean sheets	35%	15%
Both teams scored	55%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	25%	40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Vélez Sarsfield to win	45%	2.22	1.87	-15.6%
A Draw	29%	3.39	3.05	-10.1%
Platense to win	21%	4.86	4.50	-7.5%
Over 1.5 goals	54%	1.84	1.63	-11.5%
Under 1.5 goals	39%	2.54	2.10	-17.4%
Vélez Sarsfield -0.5	46%	2.16	1.80	-16.6%
Platense +0.5	47%	2.11	1.80	-14.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	60%	1.66
Over 2.5 goals	32%	3.08
Over 3.5 goals	14%	6.95
Both teams to score	38%	2.61
Vélez Sarsfield or Draw	79%	1.26
Platense or Draw	52%	1.93
Vélez Sarsfield to win and Over 2.5	21%	4.73
Platense to win and Over 2.5	8%	12.37
Vélez Sarsfield clean sheet	48%	2.09
Platense clean sheet	28%	3.55

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-016.3%

0-014.2%

1-113.3%

2-010.8%

0-19.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Vélez Sarsfield vs Platense?

Our prediction for Vélez Sarsfield vs Platense is Vélez Sarsfield to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.20.

What is the score prediction for Vélez Sarsfield vs Platense?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 0-0 and 1-1. We expect Vélez Sarsfield to score 1.3 goals and Platense 0.7.

Will both teams score in Vélez Sarsfield vs Platense?

Both teams to score has a 38% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Vélez Sarsfield last 20 games and 11 of Platense last 20.

How are Vélez Sarsfield playing?

How are Platense playing?

What happened when Vélez Sarsfield and Platense last met?

It ended Platense 0, Vélez Sarsfield 2. In the last 1 meeting Vélez Sarsfield won 1 and Platense won 0.

What is the best bet for Vélez Sarsfield vs Platense?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.20, with a 83% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Vélez against Platense. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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