Predictions › Argentina › Vélez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo

Argentina Liga ProfesionalSat 31 Oct, 22:15 Argentina time

Vélez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo prediction

José Amalfitani

Vélez SarsfieldHome

1.04 : 0.63

expected goals

San LorenzoAway

44%Vélez

35%Draw

21%San Lorenzo

Eagle safe pickVélez Sarsfield or Draw

1.27

Quick answer

Our prediction for Vélez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo is Vélez Sarsfield to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-0. Our best bet is Vélez Sarsfield or Draw at 1.27.

Prediction: Vélez Sarsfield to win
Chance: 44%
Most likely score: 0-0
Expected goals: Vélez Sarsfield 1.0, San Lorenzo 0.6
Best bet: Vélez Sarsfield or Draw at 1.27
Both teams to score: 31%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Vélez Sarsfield or Draw

79% chanceFair price 1.272 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 0-0

20% chanceFair price 5.111 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Vélez Sarsfield 44%, the draw 35% and San Lorenzo 21%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Vélez Sarsfield took 8 points from their last 5 games and San Lorenzo took 7 from 5. Vélez Sarsfield come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Vélez Sarsfield won 6 of their last 12 games at home. San Lorenzo won 2 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Vélez Sarsfield score 1.2 goals a game and let in 1.1. San Lorenzo score 0.7 and let in 0.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of Vélez Sarsfield games and 4 of San Lorenzo games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Vélez Sarsfield won 0 and San Lorenzo won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended San Lorenzo 0, Vélez Sarsfield 0.
6
The safest bet
Vélez Sarsfield or Draw has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

San Lorenzo recent form-1%

Vélez form D L D W DSan Lorenzo form D W L L DHome edge in this league 24% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Vélez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo: Vélez Sarsfield shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Vélez Sarsfield host San Lorenzo in the Argentina Liga Profesional on Sat 31 Oct, 22:15 at José Amalfitani. Our prediction for Vélez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo is Vélez Sarsfield to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-0. Our best bet is Vélez Sarsfield or Draw at 1.27.

Vélez Sarsfield form

Vélez Sarsfield have 7 wins, 9 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, W, D, newest first.

San Lorenzo form

San Lorenzo have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 13 goals scored and 17 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Vélez Sarsfield won 0, San Lorenzo won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished San Lorenzo 0, Vélez Sarsfield 0.

Our call

We expect Vélez Sarsfield to score about 1.0 goals and San Lorenzo about 0.6. That points to Vélez Sarsfield to win, with 0-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Vélez Sarsfield or Draw at 1.27. Our bold bet is Correct score 0-0 at 5.11.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Vélez	San Lorenzo
Games played	20	20
Wins	7	7
Draws	9	6
Losses	4	7
Goals scored	24	13
Goals conceded	21	17
Scored per game	1.2	0.7
Conceded per game	1.1	0.8
Home record	6W 4D 2L	5W 1D 3L
Away record	1W 5D 2L	2W 5D 4L
Clean sheets	30%	45%
Both teams scored	55%	25%
Over 2.5 goals	30%	20%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	50%	1.98
Over 2.5 goals	23%	4.26
Over 3.5 goals	9%	11.27
Both teams to score	31%	3.24
Vélez Sarsfield or Draw	79%	1.26
San Lorenzo or Draw	56%	1.80
Vélez Sarsfield to win and Over 2.5	15%	6.61
San Lorenzo to win and Over 2.5	6%	16.11
Vélez Sarsfield clean sheet	54%	1.87
San Lorenzo clean sheet	35%	2.84

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

0-019.6%

1-018.9%

1-113.0%

0-111.0%

2-010.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Vélez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo?

What is the score prediction for Vélez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo?

0-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 1-1. We expect Vélez Sarsfield to score 1.0 goals and San Lorenzo 0.6.

Will both teams score in Vélez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo?

Both teams to score has a 31% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Vélez Sarsfield last 20 games and 5 of San Lorenzo last 20.

How are Vélez Sarsfield playing?

How are San Lorenzo playing?

What happened when Vélez Sarsfield and San Lorenzo last met?

It ended San Lorenzo 0, Vélez Sarsfield 0. In the last 1 meeting Vélez Sarsfield won 0 and San Lorenzo won 0.

What is the best bet for Vélez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo?

Vélez Sarsfield or Draw at 1.27, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Vélez against San Lorenzo . A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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