Predictions › Champions League › VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid

Champions LeagueTue 20 Oct, 19:00 UTC

VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid prediction

MHPArena

VfB StuttgartHome

1.84 : 1.26

expected goals

Atlético MadridAway

50%Stuttgart

24%Draw

26%Atlético

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.25

Quick answer

Our prediction for VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid is VfB Stuttgart to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

Prediction: VfB Stuttgart to win
Chance: 50%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: VfB Stuttgart 1.8, Atlético Madrid 1.3
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.25
Both teams to score: 61%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

80% chanceFair price 1.252 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

VfB Stuttgart to win and Over 2.5

33% chanceFair price 3.011 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives VfB Stuttgart 50%, the draw 24% and Atlético Madrid 26%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
VfB Stuttgart took 9 points from their last 5 games and Atlético Madrid took 12 from 5. Atlético Madrid come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
VfB Stuttgart won 6 of their last 11 games at home. Atlético Madrid won 5 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
VfB Stuttgart score 1.9 goals a game and let in 1.6. Atlético Madrid score 1.6 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of VfB Stuttgart games and 14 of Atlético Madrid games in that run.
5
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Atléticorecent form+3%
Stuttgartrest between games-5%
Atléticorest between games-5%

Stuttgart form D L L W WAtlético form D W W W LHome edge in this league 32% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid: VfB Stuttgart are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

VfB Stuttgart host Atlético Madrid in the Champions League on Tue 20 Oct, 19:00 at MHPArena. Our prediction for VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid is VfB Stuttgart to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

VfB Stuttgart form

VfB Stuttgart have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, W, newest first.

Atlético Madrid form

Atlético Madrid have 10 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 0 draws and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect VfB Stuttgart to score about 1.8 goals and Atlético Madrid about 1.3. That points to VfB Stuttgart to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25. Our bold bet is VfB Stuttgart to win and Over 2.5 at 3.01.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Stuttgart	Atlético
Games played	20	20
Wins	8	10
Draws	4	2
Losses	8	8
Goals scored	39	33
Goals conceded	32	28
Scored per game	1.9	1.6
Conceded per game	1.6	1.4
Home record	6W 1D 4L	5W 2D 2L
Away record	2W 3D 4L	5W 0D 6L
Clean sheets	20%	25%
Both teams scored	60%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	65%	70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	82%	1.22
Over 2.5 goals	60%	1.67
Over 3.5 goals	38%	2.66
Both teams to score	61%	1.64
VfB Stuttgart or Draw	74%	1.35
Atlético Madrid or Draw	50%	2.01
VfB Stuttgart to win and Over 2.5	35%	2.85
Atlético Madrid to win and Over 2.5	17%	5.87
VfB Stuttgart clean sheet	28%	3.54
Atlético Madrid clean sheet	16%	6.30

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.1%

2-19.6%

1-07.6%

2-07.6%

1-26.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

Premier League

Mourinho Blames Referees After Real Madrid Fall Behind Barcelona

Jose Mourinho targeted the officials after Real Madrid lost the derby, while Arsenal suffered a shock defeat at Brighton.

21 Sept 2026

LaLiga

Simeone Expresses Great Respect For Mourinho Before Derby

Diego Simeone and José Mourinho will face each other in Sunday's Madrid Derby for the first time since 2014.

19 Sept 2026

LaLiga

Mourinho Questions Rivals' Penalty Luck Ahead of Elche Clash

Real Madrid boss José Mourinho pointed out penalty decisions going the way of rivals Barcelona and Atlético Madrid.

14 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid?

Our prediction for VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid is VfB Stuttgart to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

What is the score prediction for VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect VfB Stuttgart to score 1.8 goals and Atlético Madrid 1.3.

Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid?

Both teams to score has a 61% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of VfB Stuttgart last 20 games and 12 of Atlético Madrid last 20.

How are VfB Stuttgart playing?

How are Atlético Madrid playing?

What is the best bet for VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.25, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Stuttgart against Atlético. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
Betting can harm you. If it stops being fun, if you chase losses, or if you hide it from people close to you, stop and get help. Free and private support is available from BeGambleAware, GamCare and Gamblers Anonymous. Read our responsible gambling page for tools that block betting sites.

Full terms are on our disclaimer and terms pages.

Note: Never stake money you need for rent, food, bills or anyone who depends on you.