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Predictions › Germany › VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
BundesligaFri 23 Oct, 18:30 Germany time

VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach prediction

MHPArena

VfB StuttgartHome
2.48 : 1.06
expected goals
Borussia MönchengladbachAway
68%Stuttgart
18%Draw
14%Gladbach
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.17

Quick answer

Our prediction for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is VfB Stuttgart to win, with a 68% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17.

Prediction
VfB Stuttgart to win
Chance
68%
Most likely score
2-1
Expected goals
VfB Stuttgart 2.5, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.1
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.17
Both teams to score
60%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
85% chanceFair price 1.172 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

VfB Stuttgart to win and both score
36% chanceFair price 2.791 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives VfB Stuttgart 68%, the draw 18% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 14%. The bookmakers agree and make VfB Stuttgart the favourite at 1.37.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    VfB Stuttgart took 9 points from their last 5 games and Borussia Mönchengladbach took 0 from 5. VfB Stuttgart come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    VfB Stuttgart won 6 of their last 11 games at home. Borussia Mönchengladbach won 0 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    VfB Stuttgart score 1.9 goals a game and let in 1.6. Borussia Mönchengladbach score 1.3 and let in 1.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of VfB Stuttgart games and 12 of Borussia Mönchengladbach games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, VfB Stuttgart won 1 and Borussia Mönchengladbach won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Borussia Mönchengladbach 0, VfB Stuttgart 3.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Gladbachrecent form-6%
  • Gladbachrest between games-2%
Stuttgart form D L L W WGladbach form D L L L LHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach: VfB Stuttgart are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

VfB Stuttgart host Borussia Mönchengladbach in the Bundesliga on Fri 23 Oct, 18:30 at MHPArena. Our prediction for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is VfB Stuttgart to win, with a 68% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17.

VfB Stuttgart form

VfB Stuttgart have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, W, newest first.

Borussia Mönchengladbach form

Borussia Mönchengladbach have 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 39 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. VfB Stuttgart won 1, Borussia Mönchengladbach won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Borussia Mönchengladbach 0, VfB Stuttgart 3.

Our call

We expect VfB Stuttgart to score about 2.5 goals and Borussia Mönchengladbach about 1.1. That points to VfB Stuttgart to win, with 2-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17. Our bold bet is VfB Stuttgart to win and both score at 2.79.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

StuttgartGladbach
Games played2020
Wins84
Draws46
Losses810
Goals scored3926
Goals conceded3239
Scored per game1.91.3
Conceded per game1.61.9
Home record6W 1D 4L4W 3D 2L
Away record2W 3D 4L0W 3D 8L
Clean sheets20%25%
Both teams scored60%55%
Over 2.5 goals65%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
VfB Stuttgart to win69%1.461.37-6.1%
A Draw18%5.685.00-11.9%
Borussia Mönchengladbach to win14%7.225.75-20.4%
Over 3.5 goals50%2.001.67-16.5%
Under 3.5 goals46%2.182.05-6.1%
VfB Stuttgart -1.546%2.161.87-13.6%
Borussia Mönchengladbach +1.550%2.011.74-13.5%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals87%1.15
Over 2.5 goals69%1.46
Over 3.5 goals47%2.12
Both teams to score60%1.66
VfB Stuttgart or Draw86%1.16
Borussia Mönchengladbach or Draw32%3.12
VfB Stuttgart to win and Over 2.552%1.91
Borussia Mönchengladbach to win and Over 2.510%10.37
VfB Stuttgart clean sheet35%2.89
Borussia Mönchengladbach clean sheet8%11.97

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-19.5%
2-08.9%
1-18.1%
3-17.8%
3-07.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?

Our prediction for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is VfB Stuttgart to win, with a 68% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17.

What is the score prediction for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?

2-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-0 and 1-1. We expect VfB Stuttgart to score 2.5 goals and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.1.

Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?

Both teams to score has a 60% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of VfB Stuttgart last 20 games and 11 of Borussia Mönchengladbach last 20.

How are VfB Stuttgart playing?

VfB Stuttgart have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, W, newest first.

How are Borussia Mönchengladbach playing?

Borussia Mönchengladbach have 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 39 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

What happened when VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Mönchengladbach last met?

It ended Borussia Mönchengladbach 0, VfB Stuttgart 3. In the last 1 meeting VfB Stuttgart won 1 and Borussia Mönchengladbach won 0.

What is the best bet for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.17, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Stuttgart against Gladbach. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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