Predictions › Germany › VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen

BundesligaSat 7 Nov, 17:30 Germany time

VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen prediction

MHPArena

VfB StuttgartHome

2.26 : 1.29

expected goals

Werder BremenAway

59%Stuttgart

21%Draw

20%Bremen

Eagle safe pickVfB Stuttgart or Draw

1.25

Quick answer

Our prediction for VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen is VfB Stuttgart to win, with a 59% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is VfB Stuttgart or Draw at 1.25.

Prediction: VfB Stuttgart to win
Chance: 59%
Most likely score: 2-1
Expected goals: VfB Stuttgart 2.3, Werder Bremen 1.3
Best bet: VfB Stuttgart or Draw at 1.25
Both teams to score: 65%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

VfB Stuttgart or Draw

80% chanceFair price 1.252 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

VfB Stuttgart to win and Over 2.5

44% chanceFair price 2.281 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives VfB Stuttgart 59%, the draw 21% and Werder Bremen 20%. The bookmakers agree and make VfB Stuttgart the favourite at 1.43.
2
Recent form
VfB Stuttgart took 7 points from their last 5 games and Werder Bremen took 9 from 5. Werder Bremen come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
VfB Stuttgart won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Werder Bremen won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
VfB Stuttgart score 1.9 goals a game and let in 1.6. Werder Bremen score 1.5 and let in 1.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of VfB Stuttgart games and 13 of Werder Bremen games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, VfB Stuttgart won 1 and Werder Bremen won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended VfB Stuttgart 1, Werder Bremen 1.
6
The safest bet
VfB Stuttgart or Draw has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Stuttgartrecent form-1%
Bremenrecent form+3%

Stuttgart form D L D L WBremen form D W D D WHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen: VfB Stuttgart are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

VfB Stuttgart host Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga on Sat 7 Nov, 17:30 at MHPArena. Our prediction for VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen is VfB Stuttgart to win, with a 59% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is VfB Stuttgart or Draw at 1.25.

VfB Stuttgart form

VfB Stuttgart have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, W, newest first.

Werder Bremen form

Werder Bremen have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 35 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, D, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. VfB Stuttgart won 1, Werder Bremen won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished VfB Stuttgart 1, Werder Bremen 1.

Our call

We expect VfB Stuttgart to score about 2.3 goals and Werder Bremen about 1.3. That points to VfB Stuttgart to win, with 2-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is VfB Stuttgart or Draw at 1.25. Our bold bet is VfB Stuttgart to win and Over 2.5 at 2.28.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Stuttgart	Bremen
Games played	20	20
Wins	8	7
Draws	4	4
Losses	8	9
Goals scored	38	30
Goals conceded	32	35
Scored per game	1.9	1.5
Conceded per game	1.6	1.8
Home record	5W 2D 3L	4W 1D 5L
Away record	3W 2D 5L	3W 3D 4L
Clean sheets	20%	10%
Both teams scored	60%	70%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
VfB Stuttgart to win	53%	1.88	1.43	-24.2%
A Draw	21%	4.87	4.80	-1.4%
Werder Bremen to win	20%	4.93	5.00	+1.4%
Over 3.5 goals	48%	2.10	1.77	-15.7%
Under 3.5 goals	46%	2.15	1.95	-9.3%
VfB Stuttgart -1.5	42%	2.39	2.05	-14.3%
Werder Bremen +1.5	52%	1.91	1.65	-13.9%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	87%	1.14
Over 2.5 goals	69%	1.46
Over 3.5 goals	47%	2.12
Both teams to score	65%	1.53
VfB Stuttgart or Draw	80%	1.26
Werder Bremen or Draw	41%	2.43
VfB Stuttgart to win and Over 2.5	45%	2.20
Werder Bremen to win and Over 2.5	15%	6.74
VfB Stuttgart clean sheet	28%	3.62
Werder Bremen clean sheet	10%	9.55

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-19.5%

1-18.9%

2-07.4%

3-17.1%

2-26.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen?

Our prediction for VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen is VfB Stuttgart to win, with a 59% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is VfB Stuttgart or Draw at 1.25.

What is the score prediction for VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen?

2-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 2-0. We expect VfB Stuttgart to score 2.3 goals and Werder Bremen 1.3.

Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen?

Both teams to score has a 65% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of VfB Stuttgart last 20 games and 14 of Werder Bremen last 20.

How are VfB Stuttgart playing?

How are Werder Bremen playing?

What happened when VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen last met?

It ended VfB Stuttgart 1, Werder Bremen 1. In the last 2 meetings VfB Stuttgart won 1 and Werder Bremen won 0.

What is the best bet for VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen?

VfB Stuttgart or Draw at 1.25, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Stuttgart against Bremen. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
Betting can harm you. If it stops being fun, if you chase losses, or if you hide it from people close to you, stop and get help. Free and private support is available from BeGambleAware, GamCare and Gamblers Anonymous. Read our responsible gambling page for tools that block betting sites.

Full terms are on our disclaimer and terms pages.

Note: Never stake money you need for rent, food, bills or anyone who depends on you.