Predictions › Germany › VfL Osnabruck vs Dynamo Dresden

2. BundesligaSat 10 Oct, 11:00 Germany time

VfL Osnabruck vs Dynamo Dresden prediction

Stadion an der Bremer Brücke'

VfL OsnabruckHome

1.54 : 1.58

expected goals

Dynamo DresdenAway

37%Osnabruck

25%Draw

38%D Dresden

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.25

Quick answer

Our prediction for VfL Osnabruck vs Dynamo Dresden is Dynamo Dresden to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

Prediction: Dynamo Dresden to win
Chance: 38%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: VfL Osnabruck 1.5, Dynamo Dresden 1.6
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.25
Both teams to score: 63%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

80% chanceFair price 1.252 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Dynamo Dresden to win and Over 2.5

26% chanceFair price 3.881 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives VfL Osnabruck 37%, the draw 25% and Dynamo Dresden 38%. The bookmakers agree and make Dynamo Dresden the favourite at 2.40.
2
Recent form
VfL Osnabruck took 7 points from their last 5 games and Dynamo Dresden took 4 from 5. VfL Osnabruck come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
VfL Osnabruck won 1 of their last 3 games at home. Dynamo Dresden won 1 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
VfL Osnabruck score 1.5 goals a game and let in 2.0. Dynamo Dresden score 1.6 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of VfL Osnabruck games and 14 of Dynamo Dresden games in that run.
5
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

D Dresdenrecent form-3%

Osnabruck form D L W L WD Dresden form L D L L WHome edge in this league 22% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

VfL Osnabruck vs Dynamo Dresden: Dynamo Dresden shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

VfL Osnabruck host Dynamo Dresden in the 2. Bundesliga on Sat 10 Oct, 11:00 at Stadion an der Bremer Brücke'. Our prediction for VfL Osnabruck vs Dynamo Dresden is Dynamo Dresden to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

VfL Osnabruck form

VfL Osnabruck have 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses in their last 6 games, with 9 goals scored and 12 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 0 draws and 2 losses from 3. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, L, newest first.

Dynamo Dresden form

Dynamo Dresden have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 31 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, L, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect VfL Osnabruck to score about 1.5 goals and Dynamo Dresden about 1.6. That points to Dynamo Dresden to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25. Our bold bet is Dynamo Dresden to win and Over 2.5 at 3.88.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Osnabruck	D Dresden
Games played	6	20
Wins	2	7
Draws	1	4
Losses	3	9
Goals scored	9	33
Goals conceded	12	31
Scored per game	1.5	1.6
Conceded per game	2.0	1.6
Home record	1W 0D 2L	6W 0D 4L
Away record	1W 1D 1L	1W 4D 5L
Clean sheets	17%	30%
Both teams scored	67%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	67%	70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
VfL Osnabruck to win	35%	2.89	2.55	-11.9%
A Draw	24%	4.10	3.65	-11.0%
Dynamo Dresden to win	36%	2.78	2.40	-13.8%
Over 3.5 goals	37%	2.72	2.30	-15.4%
Under 3.5 goals	58%	1.73	1.53	-11.7%
VfL Osnabruck +0.5	57%	1.74	1.51	-13.2%
Dynamo Dresden -0.5	37%	2.70	2.25	-16.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	83%	1.21
Over 2.5 goals	60%	1.65
Over 3.5 goals	38%	2.63
Both teams to score	63%	1.58
VfL Osnabruck or Draw	62%	1.62
Dynamo Dresden or Draw	63%	1.58
VfL Osnabruck to win and Over 2.5	25%	3.95
Dynamo Dresden to win and Over 2.5	27%	3.77
VfL Osnabruck clean sheet	21%	4.86
Dynamo Dresden clean sheet	21%	4.68

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.4%

1-28.5%

2-18.3%

2-26.5%

0-16.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win VfL Osnabruck vs Dynamo Dresden?

Our prediction for VfL Osnabruck vs Dynamo Dresden is Dynamo Dresden to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

What is the score prediction for VfL Osnabruck vs Dynamo Dresden?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect VfL Osnabruck to score 1.5 goals and Dynamo Dresden 1.6.

Will both teams score in VfL Osnabruck vs Dynamo Dresden?

Both teams to score has a 63% chance. Both sides scored in 4 of VfL Osnabruck last 6 games and 12 of Dynamo Dresden last 20.

How are VfL Osnabruck playing?

How are Dynamo Dresden playing?

What is the best bet for VfL Osnabruck vs Dynamo Dresden?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.25, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Osnabruck against D Dresden. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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