Predictions › Germany › VfL Wolfsburg vs Holstein Kiel

2. BundesligaSat 21 Nov, 12:00 Germany time

VfL Wolfsburg vs Holstein Kiel prediction

Volkswagen Arena

VfL WolfsburgHome

2.19 : 1.25

expected goals

Holstein KielAway

58%Wolfsburg

21%Draw

21%Holstein Kiel

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.16

Quick answer

Our prediction for VfL Wolfsburg vs Holstein Kiel is VfL Wolfsburg to win, with a 58% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.16.

Prediction: VfL Wolfsburg to win
Chance: 58%
Most likely score: 2-1
Expected goals: VfL Wolfsburg 2.2, Holstein Kiel 1.3
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.16
Both teams to score: 64%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

86% chanceFair price 1.162 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

VfL Wolfsburg to win and Over 2.5

42% chanceFair price 2.381 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives VfL Wolfsburg 58%, the draw 21% and Holstein Kiel 21%. The bookmakers agree and make VfL Wolfsburg the favourite at 1.65.
2
Recent form
VfL Wolfsburg took 8 points from their last 5 games and Holstein Kiel took 4 from 5. VfL Wolfsburg come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
VfL Wolfsburg won 3 of their last 9 games at home. Holstein Kiel won 3 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
VfL Wolfsburg score 1.9 goals a game and let in 1.5. Holstein Kiel score 1.3 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of VfL Wolfsburg games and 11 of Holstein Kiel games in that run.
5
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 86% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Nothing moved this one. Both teams are rested, form is level and there is no team news we can act on, so the number is what the results and the price say on their own.

Wolfsburg form L W L D WHolstein Kiel form L L W W DHome edge in this league 27% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

VfL Wolfsburg vs Holstein Kiel: VfL Wolfsburg are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

VfL Wolfsburg host Holstein Kiel in the 2. Bundesliga on Sat 21 Nov, 12:00 at Volkswagen Arena. Our prediction for VfL Wolfsburg vs Holstein Kiel is VfL Wolfsburg to win, with a 58% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.16.

VfL Wolfsburg form

VfL Wolfsburg have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, W, D, newest first.

Holstein Kiel form

Holstein Kiel have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, D, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect VfL Wolfsburg to score about 2.2 goals and Holstein Kiel about 1.3. That points to VfL Wolfsburg to win, with 2-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.16. Our bold bet is VfL Wolfsburg to win and Over 2.5 at 2.38.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Wolfsburg	Holstein Kiel
Games played	20	20
Wins	7	6
Draws	7	6
Losses	6	8
Goals scored	37	26
Goals conceded	30	25
Scored per game	1.9	1.3
Conceded per game	1.5	1.3
Home record	3W 3D 3L	3W 5D 3L
Away record	4W 4D 3L	3W 1D 5L
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Both teams scored	65%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
VfL Wolfsburg to win	53%	1.90	1.65	-13.4%
A Draw	20%	4.88	4.30	-11.9%
Holstein Kiel to win	20%	5.06	4.10	-19.0%
Over 3.5 goals	44%	2.28	1.95	-14.3%
Under 3.5 goals	49%	2.04	1.74	-14.5%
VfL Wolfsburg -0.5	52%	1.92	1.59	-17.5%
Holstein Kiel +0.5	41%	2.43	2.10	-13.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	86%	1.16
Over 2.5 goals	67%	1.50
Over 3.5 goals	45%	2.22
Both teams to score	64%	1.57
VfL Wolfsburg or Draw	79%	1.26
Holstein Kiel or Draw	42%	2.40
VfL Wolfsburg to win and Over 2.5	44%	2.27
Holstein Kiel to win and Over 2.5	15%	6.88
VfL Wolfsburg clean sheet	29%	3.48
Holstein Kiel clean sheet	11%	8.93

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-19.6%

1-19.3%

2-07.7%

3-17.0%

1-06.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win VfL Wolfsburg vs Holstein Kiel?

Our prediction for VfL Wolfsburg vs Holstein Kiel is VfL Wolfsburg to win, with a 58% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.16.

What is the score prediction for VfL Wolfsburg vs Holstein Kiel?

2-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 2-0. We expect VfL Wolfsburg to score 2.2 goals and Holstein Kiel 1.3.

Will both teams score in VfL Wolfsburg vs Holstein Kiel?

Both teams to score has a 64% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of VfL Wolfsburg last 20 games and 10 of Holstein Kiel last 20.

How are VfL Wolfsburg playing?

How are Holstein Kiel playing?

What is the best bet for VfL Wolfsburg vs Holstein Kiel?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.16, with a 86% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Wolfsburg against Holstein Kiel. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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