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Predictions › Norway › Viking FK vs Lillestrom
EliteserienSun 20 Sept, 15:00 Norway time

Viking FK vs Lillestrom prediction

Viking Stadion

Viking FKHome
2.11 : 0.95
expected goals
LillestromAway
63%Viking FK
21%Draw
15%Lillestrom
Eagle safe pickViking FK or Draw
1.16

Quick answer

Our prediction for Viking FK vs Lillestrom is Viking FK to win, with a 63% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Viking FK or Draw at 1.16.

Prediction
Viking FK to win
Chance
63%
Most likely score
2-0
Expected goals
Viking FK 2.1, Lillestrom 0.9
Best bet
Viking FK or Draw at 1.16
Both teams to score
54%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Viking FK or Draw
86% chanceFair price 1.162 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Viking FK to win and Over 2.5
41% chanceFair price 2.421 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Viking FK 63%, the draw 21% and Lillestrom 15%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Viking FK took 7 points from their last 5 games and Lillestrom took 7 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Viking FK won 8 of their last 8 games at home. Lillestrom won 5 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Viking FK score 2.2 goals a game and let in 1.1. Lillestrom score 1.4 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 15 of Viking FK games and 10 of Lillestrom games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Viking FK won 1 and Lillestrom won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Lillestrom 1, Viking FK 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Viking FK or Draw has a 86% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Viking FKrecent form+1%
  • Lillestromrecent form+3%
  • Lillestromrest between games-5%
Viking FK form L D W W DLillestrom form W W L W DHome edge in this league 34% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Viking FK vs Lillestrom: Viking FK are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Viking FK host Lillestrom in the Eliteserien on Sun 20 Sept, 15:00 at Viking Stadion. Our prediction for Viking FK vs Lillestrom is Viking FK to win, with a 63% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Viking FK or Draw at 1.16.

Viking FK form

Viking FK have 14 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 44 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 8 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, L, W, newest first.

Lillestrom form

Lillestrom have 10 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Viking FK won 1, Lillestrom won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Lillestrom 1, Viking FK 2.

Our call

We expect Viking FK to score about 2.1 goals and Lillestrom about 0.9. That points to Viking FK to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Viking FK or Draw at 1.16. Our bold bet is Viking FK to win and Over 2.5 at 2.42.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Viking FKLillestrom
Games played2020
Wins1410
Draws22
Losses48
Goals scored4428
Goals conceded2226
Scored per game2.21.4
Conceded per game1.11.3
Home record8W 0D 0L5W 0D 5L
Away record6W 2D 4L5W 2D 3L
Clean sheets25%30%
Both teams scored70%45%
Over 2.5 goals75%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals82%1.23
Over 2.5 goals59%1.70
Over 3.5 goals37%2.73
Both teams to score54%1.84
Viking FK or Draw85%1.18
Lillestrom or Draw37%2.73
Viking FK to win and Over 2.544%2.29
Lillestrom to win and Over 2.59%10.59
Viking FK clean sheet39%2.59
Lillestrom clean sheet12%8.23

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-010.4%
1-110.0%
2-19.9%
1-09.3%
3-07.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Viking FK vs Lillestrom?

Our prediction for Viking FK vs Lillestrom is Viking FK to win, with a 63% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Viking FK or Draw at 1.16.

What is the score prediction for Viking FK vs Lillestrom?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 2-1. We expect Viking FK to score 2.1 goals and Lillestrom 0.9.

Will both teams score in Viking FK vs Lillestrom?

Both teams to score has a 54% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Viking FK last 20 games and 9 of Lillestrom last 20.

How are Viking FK playing?

Viking FK have 14 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 44 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 8 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, L, W, newest first.

How are Lillestrom playing?

Lillestrom have 10 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, D, L, newest first.

What happened when Viking FK and Lillestrom last met?

It ended Lillestrom 1, Viking FK 2. In the last 1 meeting Viking FK won 1 and Lillestrom won 0.

What is the best bet for Viking FK vs Lillestrom?

Viking FK or Draw at 1.16, with a 86% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Viking FK against Lillestrom. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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