Predictions › Spain › Villarreal vs Elche

LaLigaSat 17 Oct, 14:15 Spain time

Villarreal vs Elche prediction

Estadio de la Cerámica

VillarrealHome

2.35 : 1.18

expected goals

ElcheAway

63%Villarreal

20%Draw

17%Elche

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.18

Quick answer

Our prediction for Villarreal vs Elche is Villarreal to win, with a 63% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18.

Prediction: Villarreal to win
Chance: 63%
Most likely score: 2-1
Expected goals: Villarreal 2.4, Elche 1.2
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.18
Both teams to score: 63%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

85% chanceFair price 1.182 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Villarreal to win and both score

34% chanceFair price 2.931 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Villarreal 63%, the draw 20% and Elche 17%. The bookmakers agree and make Villarreal the favourite at 1.46.
2
Recent form
Villarreal took 6 points from their last 5 games and Elche took 4 from 5. Villarreal come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Villarreal won 6 of their last 9 games at home. Elche won 2 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Villarreal score 1.9 goals a game and let in 1.5. Elche score 1.4 and let in 1.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Villarreal games and 13 of Elche games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Villarreal won 2 and Elche won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Villarreal 2, Elche 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Villarrealrecent form-1%
Elcherecent form-3%

Villarreal form W W L L LElche form W L D L LHome edge in this league 35% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Villarreal vs Elche: Villarreal are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Villarreal host Elche in the LaLiga on Sat 17 Oct, 14:15 at Estadio de la Cerámica. Our prediction for Villarreal vs Elche is Villarreal to win, with a 63% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18.

Villarreal form

Villarreal have 8 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, L, newest first.

Elche form

Elche have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 37 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Villarreal won 2, Elche won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Villarreal 2, Elche 1.

Our call

We expect Villarreal to score about 2.4 goals and Elche about 1.2. That points to Villarreal to win, with 2-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18. Our bold bet is Villarreal to win and both score at 2.93.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Villarreal	Elche
Games played	20	20
Wins	8	6
Draws	5	5
Losses	7	9
Goals scored	39	28
Goals conceded	30	37
Scored per game	1.9	1.4
Conceded per game	1.5	1.9
Home record	6W 0D 3L	4W 2D 3L
Away record	2W 5D 4L	2W 3D 6L
Clean sheets	0%	10%
Both teams scored	85%	80%
Over 2.5 goals	70%	65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Villarreal to win	61%	1.64	1.46	-11.2%
A Draw	19%	5.14	4.70	-8.6%
Elche to win	17%	5.87	5.75	-2.0%
Over 3.5 goals	42%	2.38	2.10	-11.8%
Under 3.5 goals	51%	1.95	1.67	-14.6%
Villarreal -1.5	40%	2.47	2.05	-17.1%
Elche +1.5	53%	1.89	1.63	-14.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	87%	1.15
Over 2.5 goals	68%	1.46
Over 3.5 goals	47%	2.13
Both teams to score	63%	1.58
Villarreal or Draw	83%	1.21
Elche or Draw	37%	2.69
Villarreal to win and Over 2.5	48%	2.07
Elche to win and Over 2.5	12%	8.10
Villarreal clean sheet	31%	3.26
Elche clean sheet	10%	10.45

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-19.6%

1-18.6%

2-08.1%

3-17.5%

1-06.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Villarreal vs Elche?

Our prediction for Villarreal vs Elche is Villarreal to win, with a 63% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18.

What is the score prediction for Villarreal vs Elche?

2-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 2-0. We expect Villarreal to score 2.4 goals and Elche 1.2.

Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Elche?

Both teams to score has a 63% chance. Both sides scored in 17 of Villarreal last 20 games and 16 of Elche last 20.

How are Villarreal playing?

How are Elche playing?

What happened when Villarreal and Elche last met?

It ended Villarreal 2, Elche 1. In the last 2 meetings Villarreal won 2 and Elche won 0.

What is the best bet for Villarreal vs Elche?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.18, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Villarreal against Elche. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
Betting can harm you. If it stops being fun, if you chase losses, or if you hide it from people close to you, stop and get help. Free and private support is available from BeGambleAware, GamCare and Gamblers Anonymous. Read our responsible gambling page for tools that block betting sites.

Full terms are on our disclaimer and terms pages.

Note: Never stake money you need for rent, food, bills or anyone who depends on you.