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Predictions › United States › Virginia Cavaliers vs Florida State Seminoles
College FootballSat 3 Oct, 15:30 United States time

Virginia Cavaliers vs Florida State Seminoles prediction

Doak Campbell Stadium

Virginia CavaliersAway
26.6 : 24.4
projected points
Florida State SeminolesHome
61%Virginia
39%Florida St
Eagle safe pickFlorida St +13
-308

Quick answer

Our prediction for Virginia Cavaliers vs Florida State Seminoles is Virginia Cavaliers to win, with a 61% chance. We project Virginia Cavaliers 26.6 and Florida State Seminoles 24.4. Our best bet is Florida St +13 at -308.

Prediction
Virginia Cavaliers to win
Chance
61%
Projected score
Virginia Cavaliers 27, Florida State Seminoles 24
Projected total
51.0 points
Best bet
Florida St +13 at -308

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Florida St +13
75% chanceFair price -3082 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Florida State Seminoles 39% and Virginia Cavaliers 61%. The bookmakers agree and make Virginia Cavaliers the favourite at -155.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Florida State Seminoles won 2 of their last 5 and Virginia Cavaliers won 4 of their last 5. Virginia Cavaliers come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Florida State Seminoles won 5 of their last 8 games at home. Virginia Cavaliers won 5 of their last 5 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Florida State Seminoles score 29.7 points a game and let in 24.6. Virginia Cavaliers score 32.1 and let in 17.8. Their recent games average 54.4 and 49.9 points in total, and the market line is 51.5.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Florida State Seminoles won 0 and Virginia Cavaliers won 1. The last one ended Virginia Cavaliers 46, Florida State Seminoles 38.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Florida St +13 has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Florida Strest between games-5%
  • Virginiarest between games-5%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Virginia Cavaliers vs Florida State Seminoles: Virginia Cavaliers are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Florida State Seminoles host Virginia Cavaliers in the College Football on Sat 3 Oct, 15:30 at Doak Campbell Stadium. Our prediction for Virginia Cavaliers vs Florida State Seminoles is Virginia Cavaliers to win, with a 61% chance. We project Virginia Cavaliers 26.6 and Florida State Seminoles 24.4. Our best bet is Florida St +13 at -308.

Florida State Seminoles form

Florida State Seminoles have 5 wins and 9 losses in their last 14 games, with 416 points scored and 345 conceded. At home they have 5 wins and 3 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, L, newest first.

Virginia Cavaliers form

Virginia Cavaliers have 13 wins and 3 losses in their last 16 games, with 514 points scored and 284 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins and 0 losses from 5. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Florida State Seminoles won 0, Virginia Cavaliers won 1. Last time out it finished Virginia Cavaliers 46, Florida State Seminoles 38.

Our call

We expect Virginia Cavaliers to score about 26.6 points and Florida State Seminoles about 24.4. That points to Virginia Cavaliers to win. Our safest bet is Florida St +13 at -308.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 16 games in all competitions.

Florida StVirginia
Games played1416
Wins513
Losses93
Points scored416514
Points conceded345284
Scored per game29.732.1
Conceded per game24.617.8
Home record5W 3L8W 3L
Away record0W 6L5W 0L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Florida St to win39%+154+130-9.5%
Virginia to win54%-119-155-10.5%
Florida St +349%+105-115-8.6%
Virginia -345%+123-105-12.4%
Over 51.5 points46%+119-110-12.7%
Under 51.5 points48%+108-110-8.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Florida St spreadCoversFair
Florida St -4.534%+197
Florida St -0.543%+131
Florida St +2.551%-103
Florida St +5.558%-139
Florida St +9.568%-208
Total pointsOverUnder
44.566%34%
48.556%44%
51.549%51%
54.541%59%
58.532%68%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Florida St +3.5 wins if Florida St win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Questions people ask

Who will win Virginia Cavaliers vs Florida State Seminoles?

Our prediction for Virginia Cavaliers vs Florida State Seminoles is Virginia Cavaliers to win, with a 61% chance. We project Virginia Cavaliers 26.6 and Florida State Seminoles 24.4. Our best bet is Florida St +13 at -308.

What is the projected score for Virginia Cavaliers vs Florida State Seminoles?

We project Virginia Cavaliers 26.6 and Florida State Seminoles 24.4, about 51.0 points in total.

How are Florida State Seminoles playing?

Florida State Seminoles have 5 wins and 9 losses in their last 14 games, with 416 points scored and 345 conceded. At home they have 5 wins and 3 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, L, newest first.

How are Virginia Cavaliers playing?

Virginia Cavaliers have 13 wins and 3 losses in their last 16 games, with 514 points scored and 284 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins and 0 losses from 5. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Florida State Seminoles and Virginia Cavaliers last met?

It ended Virginia Cavaliers 46, Florida State Seminoles 38. In the last 1 meeting Florida State Seminoles won 0 and Virginia Cavaliers won 1.

What is the best bet for Virginia Cavaliers vs Florida State Seminoles?

Florida St +13 at -308, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Florida St against Virginia. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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