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Predictions › United States › Virginia Cavaliers vs SMU Mustangs
College FootballSat 17 Oct, 12:00 United States time

Virginia Cavaliers vs SMU Mustangs prediction

Gerald J. Ford Stadium

Virginia CavaliersAway
17.4 : 30.2
projected points
SMU MustangsHome
23%Virginia
77%SMU
Eagle safe pickSMU to win
-332

Quick answer

Our prediction for Virginia Cavaliers vs SMU Mustangs is SMU Mustangs to win, with a 77% chance. We project Virginia Cavaliers 17.4 and SMU Mustangs 30.2. Our best bet is SMU to win at -332.

Prediction
SMU Mustangs to win
Chance
77%
Projected score
Virginia Cavaliers 17, SMU Mustangs 30
Projected total
47.6 points
Best bet
SMU to win at -332

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

SMU to win
77% chanceFair price -3322 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives SMU Mustangs 77% and Virginia Cavaliers 23%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    SMU Mustangs won 4 of their last 5 and Virginia Cavaliers won 3 of their last 5. SMU Mustangs come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    SMU Mustangs won 8 of their last 8 games at home. Virginia Cavaliers won 5 of their last 6 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    SMU Mustangs score 31.6 points a game and let in 20.1. Virginia Cavaliers score 30.6 and let in 18.9. Their recent games average 51.6 and 49.6 points in total.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    SMU to win has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Nothing moved this one. Both teams are rested, form is level and there is no team news we can act on, so the number is what the results and the price say on their own.

Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Virginia Cavaliers vs SMU Mustangs: SMU Mustangs are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

SMU Mustangs host Virginia Cavaliers in the College Football on Sat 17 Oct, 12:00 at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. Our prediction for Virginia Cavaliers vs SMU Mustangs is SMU Mustangs to win, with a 77% chance. We project Virginia Cavaliers 17.4 and SMU Mustangs 30.2. Our best bet is SMU to win at -332.

SMU Mustangs form

SMU Mustangs have 12 wins and 4 losses in their last 16 games, with 505 points scored and 321 conceded. At home they have 8 wins and 0 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, W, newest first.

Virginia Cavaliers form

Virginia Cavaliers have 13 wins and 4 losses in their last 17 games, with 521 points scored and 322 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins and 1 loss from 6. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Virginia Cavaliers to score about 17.4 points and SMU Mustangs about 30.2. That points to SMU Mustangs to win. Our safest bet is SMU to win at -332.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 17 games in all competitions.

SMUVirginia
Games played1617
Wins1213
Losses44
Points scored505521
Points conceded321322
Scored per game31.630.6
Conceded per game20.118.9
Home record8W 0L8W 3L
Away record4W 4L5W 1L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

SMU spreadCoversFair
SMU -19.534%+194
SMU -15.544%+130
SMU -12.551%-104
SMU -9.558%-140
SMU -5.568%-211
Total pointsOverUnder
40.567%33%
44.558%42%
47.550%50%
50.543%57%
54.533%67%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. SMU +3.5 wins if SMU win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Questions people ask

Who will win Virginia Cavaliers vs SMU Mustangs?

Our prediction for Virginia Cavaliers vs SMU Mustangs is SMU Mustangs to win, with a 77% chance. We project Virginia Cavaliers 17.4 and SMU Mustangs 30.2. Our best bet is SMU to win at -332.

What is the projected score for Virginia Cavaliers vs SMU Mustangs?

We project Virginia Cavaliers 17.4 and SMU Mustangs 30.2, about 47.6 points in total.

How are SMU Mustangs playing?

SMU Mustangs have 12 wins and 4 losses in their last 16 games, with 505 points scored and 321 conceded. At home they have 8 wins and 0 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, W, newest first.

How are Virginia Cavaliers playing?

Virginia Cavaliers have 13 wins and 4 losses in their last 17 games, with 521 points scored and 322 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins and 1 loss from 6. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Virginia Cavaliers vs SMU Mustangs?

SMU to win at -332, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in SMU against Virginia. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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