Predictions › Italy › Virtus Entella vs Mantova

Serie BSat 24 Oct, 13:00 Italy time

Virtus Entella vs Mantova prediction

Comunale Aldo Gastaldi

Virtus EntellaHome

1.41 : 1.30

expected goals

MantovaAway

39%Virtus Entella

27%Draw

34%Mantova

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.32

Quick answer

Our prediction for Virtus Entella vs Mantova is Virtus Entella to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32.

Prediction: Virtus Entella to win
Chance: 39%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Virtus Entella 1.4, Mantova 1.3
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.32
Both teams to score: 56%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

76% chanceFair price 1.322 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

13% chanceFair price 7.721 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Virtus Entella 39%, the draw 27% and Mantova 34%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Virtus Entella took 6 points from their last 5 games and Mantova took 11 from 5. Mantova come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Virtus Entella won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Mantova won 4 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Virtus Entella score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.4. Mantova score 1.7 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Virtus Entella games and 12 of Mantova games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Virtus Entella won 1 and Mantova won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Mantova 1, Virtus Entella 0.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Nothing moved this one. Both teams are rested, form is level and there is no team news we can act on, so the number is what the results and the price say on their own.

Virtus Entella form D D W D LMantova form D D W D LHome edge in this league 31% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Virtus Entella vs Mantova: Virtus Entella shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Virtus Entella host Mantova in the Serie B on Sat 24 Oct, 13:00 at Comunale Aldo Gastaldi. Our prediction for Virtus Entella vs Mantova is Virtus Entella to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32.

Virtus Entella form

Virtus Entella have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, D, L, newest first.

Mantova form

Mantova have 11 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Virtus Entella won 1, Mantova won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Mantova 1, Virtus Entella 0.

Our call

We expect Virtus Entella to score about 1.4 goals and Mantova about 1.3. That points to Virtus Entella to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.72.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Virtus Entella	Mantova
Games played	20	20
Wins	6	11
Draws	5	4
Losses	9	5
Goals scored	21	34
Goals conceded	27	25
Scored per game	1.1	1.7
Conceded per game	1.4	1.3
Home record	4W 3D 3L	7W 2D 1L
Away record	2W 2D 6L	4W 2D 4L
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	76%	1.32
Over 2.5 goals	51%	1.97
Over 3.5 goals	29%	3.49
Both teams to score	56%	1.80
Virtus Entella or Draw	66%	1.51
Mantova or Draw	61%	1.64
Virtus Entella to win and Over 2.5	24%	4.24
Mantova to win and Over 2.5	20%	4.93
Virtus Entella clean sheet	27%	3.66
Mantova clean sheet	25%	4.08

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.0%

1-08.7%

2-18.6%

0-18.0%

1-27.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Virtus Entella vs Mantova?

Our prediction for Virtus Entella vs Mantova is Virtus Entella to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32.

What is the score prediction for Virtus Entella vs Mantova?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Virtus Entella to score 1.4 goals and Mantova 1.3.

Will both teams score in Virtus Entella vs Mantova?

Both teams to score has a 56% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Virtus Entella last 20 games and 11 of Mantova last 20.

How are Virtus Entella playing?

How are Mantova playing?

What happened when Virtus Entella and Mantova last met?

It ended Mantova 1, Virtus Entella 0. In the last 2 meetings Virtus Entella won 1 and Mantova won 1.

What is the best bet for Virtus Entella vs Mantova?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.32, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Virtus Entella against Mantova. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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