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Predictions › Japan › Vissel Kobe vs Machida Zelvia
J1 LeagueSat 24 Oct, 06:00 Japan time

Vissel Kobe vs Machida Zelvia prediction

Kobe Wing Stadium

Vissel KobeHome
1.28 : 1.29
expected goals
Machida ZelviaAway
36%Vissel Kobe
28%Draw
36%Machida Zelvia
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.34

Quick answer

Our prediction for Vissel Kobe vs Machida Zelvia is Machida Zelvia to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.34.

Prediction
Machida Zelvia to win
Chance
36%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Vissel Kobe 1.3, Machida Zelvia 1.3
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.34
Both teams to score
53%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
75% chanceFair price 1.341 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 7.471 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Vissel Kobe 36%, the draw 28% and Machida Zelvia 36%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Vissel Kobe took 12 points from their last 5 games and Machida Zelvia took 10 from 5. Vissel Kobe come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Vissel Kobe won 6 of their last 9 games at home. Machida Zelvia won 5 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Vissel Kobe score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.3. Machida Zelvia score 1.8 and let in 0.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Vissel Kobe games and 9 of Machida Zelvia games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Vissel Koberecent form+6%
  • Machida Zelviarecent form+1%
Vissel Kobe form D W W W WMachida Zelvia form D L W D WHome edge in this league 16% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Vissel Kobe vs Machida Zelvia: Machida Zelvia shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Vissel Kobe host Machida Zelvia in the J1 League on Sat 24 Oct, 06:00 at Kobe Wing Stadium. Our prediction for Vissel Kobe vs Machida Zelvia is Machida Zelvia to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.34.

Vissel Kobe form

Vissel Kobe have 11 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Machida Zelvia form

Machida Zelvia have 11 wins, 8 draws and 1 loss in their last 20 games, with 36 goals scored and 17 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 6 draws and 0 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, W, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Vissel Kobe to score about 1.3 goals and Machida Zelvia about 1.3. That points to Machida Zelvia to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.34. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.47.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Vissel KobeMachida Zelvia
Games played2020
Wins1111
Draws48
Losses51
Goals scored3136
Goals conceded2517
Scored per game1.61.8
Conceded per game1.30.8
Home record6W 2D 1L6W 2D 1L
Away record5W 2D 4L5W 6D 0L
Clean sheets40%40%
Both teams scored40%60%
Over 2.5 goals50%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals74%1.36
Over 2.5 goals48%2.10
Over 3.5 goals26%3.87
Both teams to score53%1.88
Vissel Kobe or Draw64%1.56
Machida Zelvia or Draw64%1.56
Vissel Kobe to win and Over 2.521%4.87
Machida Zelvia to win and Over 2.521%4.83
Vissel Kobe clean sheet28%3.63
Machida Zelvia clean sheet28%3.61

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.4%
0-19.1%
1-09.0%
0-08.4%
1-28.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Vissel Kobe vs Machida Zelvia?

Our prediction for Vissel Kobe vs Machida Zelvia is Machida Zelvia to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.34.

What is the score prediction for Vissel Kobe vs Machida Zelvia?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-0. We expect Vissel Kobe to score 1.3 goals and Machida Zelvia 1.3.

Will both teams score in Vissel Kobe vs Machida Zelvia?

Both teams to score has a 53% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Vissel Kobe last 20 games and 12 of Machida Zelvia last 20.

How are Vissel Kobe playing?

Vissel Kobe have 11 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

How are Machida Zelvia playing?

Machida Zelvia have 11 wins, 8 draws and 1 loss in their last 20 games, with 36 goals scored and 17 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 6 draws and 0 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, W, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Vissel Kobe vs Machida Zelvia?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.34, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Vissel Kobe against Machida Zelvia. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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