Predictions › Portugal › Vitória de Guimaraes vs FC Porto

Primeira LigaSun 8 Nov, 18:00 Portugal time

Vitória de Guimaraes vs FC Porto prediction

Estádio D. Afonso Henriques

Vitória de GuimaraesHome

0.96 : 1.27

expected goals

FC PortoAway

27%Vitória

30%Draw

43%FC Porto

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.23

Quick answer

Our prediction for Vitória de Guimaraes vs FC Porto is FC Porto to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.23.

Prediction: FC Porto to win
Chance: 43%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Vitória de Guimaraes 1.0, FC Porto 1.3
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.23
Both teams to score: 45%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

81% chanceFair price 1.232 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

14% chanceFair price 7.201 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Vitória de Guimaraes 27%, the draw 30% and FC Porto 43%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Vitória de Guimaraes took 5 points from their last 5 games and FC Porto took 9 from 5. FC Porto come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Vitória de Guimaraes won 4 of their last 10 games at home. FC Porto won 7 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Vitória de Guimaraes score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.4. FC Porto score 1.7 and let in 0.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Vitória de Guimaraes games and 9 of FC Porto games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Vitória de Guimaraes won 0 and FC Porto won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Vitória de Guimaraes 0, FC Porto 1.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Vitória recent form-1%

Vitória form D W L D LFC Porto form D L L W WHome edge in this league 17% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Vitória de Guimaraes vs FC Porto: FC Porto shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Vitória de Guimaraes host FC Porto in the Primeira Liga on Sun 8 Nov, 18:00 at Estádio D. Afonso Henriques. Our prediction for Vitória de Guimaraes vs FC Porto is FC Porto to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.23.

Vitória de Guimaraes form

Vitória de Guimaraes have 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, L, D, newest first.

FC Porto form

FC Porto have 14 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 17 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Vitória de Guimaraes won 0, FC Porto won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Vitória de Guimaraes 0, FC Porto 1.

Our call

We expect Vitória de Guimaraes to score about 1.0 goals and FC Porto about 1.3. That points to FC Porto to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.23. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.20.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Vitória	FC Porto
Games played	20	20
Wins	5	14
Draws	4	1
Losses	11	5
Goals scored	22	34
Goals conceded	27	17
Scored per game	1.1	1.7
Conceded per game	1.4	0.8
Home record	4W 3D 3L	7W 1D 2L
Away record	1W 1D 8L	7W 0D 3L
Clean sheets	30%	40%
Both teams scored	35%	45%
Over 2.5 goals	35%	45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	66%	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	39%	2.59
Over 3.5 goals	19%	5.35
Both teams to score	45%	2.21
Vitória de Guimaraes or Draw	57%	1.75
FC Porto or Draw	73%	1.37
Vitória de Guimaraes to win and Over 2.5	13%	7.86
FC Porto to win and Over 2.5	21%	4.70
Vitória de Guimaraes clean sheet	28%	3.57
FC Porto clean sheet	38%	2.61

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.9%

0-112.9%

0-011.5%

1-09.5%

0-28.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Vitória de Guimaraes vs FC Porto?

Our prediction for Vitória de Guimaraes vs FC Porto is FC Porto to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.23.

What is the score prediction for Vitória de Guimaraes vs FC Porto?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 0-0. We expect Vitória de Guimaraes to score 1.0 goals and FC Porto 1.3.

Will both teams score in Vitória de Guimaraes vs FC Porto?

Both teams to score has a 45% chance. Both sides scored in 7 of Vitória de Guimaraes last 20 games and 9 of FC Porto last 20.

How are Vitória de Guimaraes playing?

How are FC Porto playing?

What happened when Vitória de Guimaraes and FC Porto last met?

It ended Vitória de Guimaraes 0, FC Porto 1. In the last 1 meeting Vitória de Guimaraes won 0 and FC Porto won 1.

What is the best bet for Vitória de Guimaraes vs FC Porto?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.23, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Vitória against FC Porto. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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