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Predictions › Portugal › Vitória de Guimaraes vs Maritimo
Primeira LigaFri 23 Oct, 19:45 Portugal time

Vitória de Guimaraes vs Maritimo prediction

Estádio D. Afonso Henriques

Vitória de GuimaraesHome
1.33 : 0.92
expected goals
MaritimoAway
45%Vitória
30%Draw
25%Maritimo
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.26

Quick answer

Our prediction for Vitória de Guimaraes vs Maritimo is Vitória de Guimaraes to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.26.

Prediction
Vitória de Guimaraes to win
Chance
45%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Vitória de Guimaraes 1.3, Maritimo 0.9
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.26
Both teams to score
45%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
79% chanceFair price 1.262 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.311 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Vitória de Guimaraes 45%, the draw 30% and Maritimo 25%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Vitória de Guimaraes took 2 points from their last 5 games and Maritimo took 1 from 5. Vitória de Guimaraes come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Vitória de Guimaraes won 3 of their last 9 games at home. Maritimo won 1 of their last 4 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Vitória de Guimaraes score 0.9 goals a game and let in 1.5. Maritimo score 1.1 and let in 1.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Vitória de Guimaraes games and 6 of Maritimo games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Vitória recent form-3%
  • Maritimorecent form-4%
  • Vitória rest between games-2%
Vitória form D D L D LMaritimo form D D L L LHome edge in this league 19% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Vitória de Guimaraes vs Maritimo: Vitória de Guimaraes are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Vitória de Guimaraes host Maritimo in the Primeira Liga on Fri 23 Oct, 19:45 at Estádio D. Afonso Henriques. Our prediction for Vitória de Guimaraes vs Maritimo is Vitória de Guimaraes to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.26.

Vitória de Guimaraes form

Vitória de Guimaraes have 4 wins, 4 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 19 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, D, L, newest first.

Maritimo form

Maritimo have 2 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses in their last 8 games, with 9 goals scored and 14 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 1 draw and 2 losses from 4. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, L, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Vitória de Guimaraes to score about 1.3 goals and Maritimo about 0.9. That points to Vitória de Guimaraes to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.26. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.31.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Vitória Maritimo
Games played208
Wins42
Draws42
Losses124
Goals scored199
Goals conceded3014
Scored per game0.91.1
Conceded per game1.51.8
Home record3W 3D 3L1W 1D 2L
Away record1W 1D 9L1W 1D 2L
Clean sheets25%13%
Both teams scored40%75%
Over 2.5 goals35%75%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals66%1.51
Over 2.5 goals39%2.57
Over 3.5 goals19%5.28
Both teams to score45%2.23
Vitória de Guimaraes or Draw75%1.33
Maritimo or Draw55%1.83
Vitória de Guimaraes to win and Over 2.523%4.39
Maritimo to win and Over 2.512%8.59
Vitória de Guimaraes clean sheet40%2.50
Maritimo clean sheet27%3.77

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.7%
1-013.3%
0-011.4%
2-09.3%
0-18.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Vitória de Guimaraes vs Maritimo?

Our prediction for Vitória de Guimaraes vs Maritimo is Vitória de Guimaraes to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.26.

What is the score prediction for Vitória de Guimaraes vs Maritimo?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Vitória de Guimaraes to score 1.3 goals and Maritimo 0.9.

Will both teams score in Vitória de Guimaraes vs Maritimo?

Both teams to score has a 45% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Vitória de Guimaraes last 20 games and 6 of Maritimo last 8.

How are Vitória de Guimaraes playing?

Vitória de Guimaraes have 4 wins, 4 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 19 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, D, L, newest first.

How are Maritimo playing?

Maritimo have 2 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses in their last 8 games, with 9 goals scored and 14 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 1 draw and 2 losses from 4. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, L, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for Vitória de Guimaraes vs Maritimo?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.26, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Vitória against Maritimo. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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