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Predictions › Brazil › Vitória vs Athletico-PR
BrasileiraoSat 24 Oct, 19:30 Brazil time

Vitória vs Athletico-PR prediction

Estadio Manoel Barradas

VitóriaHome
1.38 : 1.17
expected goals
Athletico-PRAway
41%Vitória
28%Draw
31%Athletico-PR
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.33

Quick answer

Our prediction for Vitória vs Athletico-PR is Vitória to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.33.

Prediction
Vitória to win
Chance
41%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Vitória 1.4, Athletico-PR 1.2
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.33
Both teams to score
52%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
75% chanceFair price 1.331 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 7.481 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Vitória 41%, the draw 28% and Athletico-PR 31%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Vitória took 7 points from their last 5 games and Athletico-PR took 8 from 5. Athletico-PR come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Vitória won 6 of their last 10 games at home. Athletico-PR won 5 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Vitória score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.5. Athletico-PR score 1.7 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Vitória games and 10 of Athletico-PR games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Vitória won 0 and Athletico-PR won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Athletico-PR 3, Vitória 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Vitóriarecent form+1%
  • Athletico-PRrest between games-2%
Vitória form D W L D WAthletico-PR form D D W D LHome edge in this league 40% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Vitória vs Athletico-PR: Vitória shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Vitória host Athletico-PR in the Brasileirao on Sat 24 Oct, 19:30 at Estadio Manoel Barradas. Our prediction for Vitória vs Athletico-PR is Vitória to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.33.

Vitória form

Vitória have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, D, W, newest first.

Athletico-PR form

Athletico-PR have 10 wins, 7 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Vitória won 0, Athletico-PR won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Athletico-PR 3, Vitória 1.

Our call

We expect Vitória to score about 1.4 goals and Athletico-PR about 1.2. That points to Vitória to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.33. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.48.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

VitóriaAthletico-PR
Games played2020
Wins610
Draws47
Losses103
Goals scored2234
Goals conceded3022
Scored per game1.11.7
Conceded per game1.51.1
Home record6W 1D 3L5W 5D 0L
Away record0W 3D 7L5W 2D 3L
Clean sheets35%30%
Both teams scored40%60%
Over 2.5 goals50%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals73%1.37
Over 2.5 goals47%2.14
Over 3.5 goals25%3.96
Both teams to score52%1.91
Vitória or Draw69%1.45
Athletico-PR or Draw59%1.69
Vitória to win and Over 2.523%4.26
Athletico-PR to win and Over 2.517%5.79
Vitória clean sheet31%3.22
Athletico-PR clean sheet25%3.97

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.4%
1-010.0%
2-18.7%
0-08.6%
0-18.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Vitória vs Athletico-PR?

Our prediction for Vitória vs Athletico-PR is Vitória to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.33.

What is the score prediction for Vitória vs Athletico-PR?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Vitória to score 1.4 goals and Athletico-PR 1.2.

Will both teams score in Vitória vs Athletico-PR?

Both teams to score has a 52% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Vitória last 20 games and 12 of Athletico-PR last 20.

How are Vitória playing?

Vitória have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, D, W, newest first.

How are Athletico-PR playing?

Athletico-PR have 10 wins, 7 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, D, L, newest first.

What happened when Vitória and Athletico-PR last met?

It ended Athletico-PR 3, Vitória 1. In the last 1 meeting Vitória won 0 and Athletico-PR won 1.

What is the best bet for Vitória vs Athletico-PR?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.33, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Vitória against Athletico-PR. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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