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BrasileiraoWed 7 Oct, 23:00 Brazil time

Vitória vs Chapecoense prediction

Estadio Manoel Barradas

VitóriaHome

1.60 : 0.91

expected goals

ChapecoenseAway

53%Vitória

26%Draw

21%Chapecoense

Eagle safe pickVitória or Draw

1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Vitória vs Chapecoense is Vitória to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Vitória or Draw at 1.30.

Prediction: Vitória to win
Chance: 53%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Vitória 1.6, Chapecoense 0.9
Best bet: Vitória or Draw at 1.30
Both teams to score: 48%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Vitória or Draw

77% chanceFair price 1.302 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Vitória to win and Over 2.5

29% chanceFair price 3.461 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Vitória 53%, the draw 26% and Chapecoense 21%. The bookmakers agree and make Vitória the favourite at 1.67.
2
Recent form
Vitória took 4 points from their last 5 games and Chapecoense took 7 from 5. Chapecoense come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Vitória won 6 of their last 10 games at home. Chapecoense won 1 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Vitória score 1.0 goals a game and let in 1.4. Chapecoense score 1.0 and let in 2.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Vitória games and 13 of Chapecoense games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Vitória won 0 and Chapecoense won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Chapecoense 1, Vitória 1.
6
The safest bet
Vitória or Draw has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Vitóriarecent form-3%

Vitória form L D W L LChapecoense form D L W L WHome edge in this league 38% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Vitória vs Chapecoense: Vitória are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Vitória host Chapecoense in the Brasileirao on Wed 7 Oct, 23:00 at Estadio Manoel Barradas. Our prediction for Vitória vs Chapecoense is Vitória to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Vitória or Draw at 1.30.

Vitória form

Vitória have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, L, L, newest first.

Chapecoense form

Chapecoense have 2 wins, 5 draws and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 42 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 7 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Vitória won 0, Chapecoense won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Chapecoense 1, Vitória 1.

Our call

We expect Vitória to score about 1.6 goals and Chapecoense about 0.9. That points to Vitória to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Vitória or Draw at 1.30. Our bold bet is Vitória to win and Over 2.5 at 3.46.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Vitória	Chapecoense
Games played	20	20
Wins	6	2
Draws	5	5
Losses	9	13
Goals scored	20	20
Goals conceded	29	42
Scored per game	1.0	1.0
Conceded per game	1.4	2.1
Home record	6W 1D 3L	1W 2D 6L
Away record	0W 4D 6L	1W 3D 7L
Clean sheets	35%	5%
Both teams scored	40%	70%
Over 2.5 goals	40%	65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Vitória to win	50%	2.01	1.67	-17.1%
A Draw	26%	3.92	3.75	-4.3%
Chapecoense to win	20%	4.90	4.70	-4.2%
Over 2.5 goals	46%	2.16	1.80	-16.6%
Under 2.5 goals	47%	2.11	1.87	-11.3%
Vitória -0.5	52%	1.92	1.61	-16.5%
Chapecoense +0.5	42%	2.39	2.05	-14.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	72%	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	46%	2.17
Over 3.5 goals	25%	4.07
Both teams to score	48%	2.06
Vitória or Draw	79%	1.26
Chapecoense or Draw	47%	2.12
Vitória to win and Over 2.5	30%	3.31
Chapecoense to win and Over 2.5	11%	9.35
Vitória clean sheet	40%	2.49
Chapecoense clean sheet	20%	4.96

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.5%

1-012.3%

2-010.4%

2-19.5%

0-08.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Vitória vs Chapecoense?

Our prediction for Vitória vs Chapecoense is Vitória to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Vitória or Draw at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Vitória vs Chapecoense?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-0. We expect Vitória to score 1.6 goals and Chapecoense 0.9.

Will both teams score in Vitória vs Chapecoense?

Both teams to score has a 48% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Vitória last 20 games and 14 of Chapecoense last 20.

How are Vitória playing?

How are Chapecoense playing?

What happened when Vitória and Chapecoense last met?

It ended Chapecoense 1, Vitória 1. In the last 1 meeting Vitória won 0 and Chapecoense won 0.

What is the best bet for Vitória vs Chapecoense?

Vitória or Draw at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Vitória against Chapecoense. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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