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Predictions › Brazil › Vitória vs Fluminense
BrasileiraoFri 6 Nov, 23:00 Brazil time

Vitória vs Fluminense prediction

Estadio Manoel Barradas

VitóriaHome
1.41 : 0.94
expected goals
FluminenseAway
47%Vitória
29%Draw
24%Fluminense
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.26

Quick answer

Our prediction for Vitória vs Fluminense is Vitória to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.26.

Prediction
Vitória to win
Chance
47%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Vitória 1.4, Fluminense 0.9
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.26
Both teams to score
47%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
79% chanceFair price 1.262 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 7.461 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Vitória 47%, the draw 29% and Fluminense 24%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Vitória took 5 points from their last 5 games and Fluminense took 3 from 5. Vitória come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Vitória won 6 of their last 10 games at home. Fluminense won 2 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Vitória score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.4. Fluminense score 1.4 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Vitória games and 10 of Fluminense games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Vitória won 0 and Fluminense won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Fluminense 2, Vitória 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Vitóriarecent form-1%
  • Fluminenserecent form-3%
Vitória form D D L W LFluminense form D W L L LHome edge in this league 39% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Vitória vs Fluminense: Vitória are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Vitória host Fluminense in the Brasileirao on Fri 6 Nov, 23:00 at Estadio Manoel Barradas. Our prediction for Vitória vs Fluminense is Vitória to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.26.

Vitória form

Vitória have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, W, L, newest first.

Fluminense form

Fluminense have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Vitória won 0, Fluminense won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Fluminense 2, Vitória 2.

Our call

We expect Vitória to score about 1.4 goals and Fluminense about 0.9. That points to Vitória to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.26. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.46.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

VitóriaFluminense
Games played2020
Wins67
Draws57
Losses96
Goals scored2328
Goals conceded2923
Scored per game1.11.4
Conceded per game1.41.1
Home record6W 1D 3L5W 3D 2L
Away record0W 4D 6L2W 4D 4L
Clean sheets30%30%
Both teams scored45%65%
Over 2.5 goals45%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals69%1.46
Over 2.5 goals42%2.40
Over 3.5 goals21%4.77
Both teams to score47%2.14
Vitória or Draw76%1.32
Fluminense or Draw53%1.89
Vitória to win and Over 2.525%4.02
Fluminense to win and Over 2.512%8.42
Vitória clean sheet39%2.55
Fluminense clean sheet24%4.08

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.4%
1-012.7%
0-010.3%
2-09.5%
2-18.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Vitória vs Fluminense?

Our prediction for Vitória vs Fluminense is Vitória to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.26.

What is the score prediction for Vitória vs Fluminense?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Vitória to score 1.4 goals and Fluminense 0.9.

Will both teams score in Vitória vs Fluminense?

Both teams to score has a 47% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Vitória last 20 games and 13 of Fluminense last 20.

How are Vitória playing?

Vitória have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, W, L, newest first.

How are Fluminense playing?

Fluminense have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Vitória and Fluminense last met?

It ended Fluminense 2, Vitória 2. In the last 2 meetings Vitória won 0 and Fluminense won 1.

What is the best bet for Vitória vs Fluminense?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.26, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Vitória against Fluminense. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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