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Predictions › Belgium › Waasland-Beveren vs Lommel SK
Belgian Pro LeagueFri 9 Oct, 18:45 Belgium time

Waasland-Beveren vs Lommel SK prediction

Freethielstadion

Waasland-BeverenHome
1.81 : 1.08
expected goals
Lommel SKAway
54%Waasland-Beveren
24%Draw
22%Lommel SK
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Waasland-Beveren vs Lommel SK is Waasland-Beveren to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction
Waasland-Beveren to win
Chance
54%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Waasland-Beveren 1.8, Lommel SK 1.1
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score
56%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.302 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Waasland-Beveren to win and Over 2.5
33% chanceFair price 3.001 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Waasland-Beveren 54%, the draw 24% and Lommel SK 22%. The bookmakers agree and make Waasland-Beveren the favourite at 1.80.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Waasland-Beveren took 6 points from their last 5 games and Lommel SK took 7 from 5. Lommel SK come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Waasland-Beveren won 3 of their last 3 games at home. Lommel SK won 1 of their last 3 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Waasland-Beveren score 1.0 goals a game and let in 1.6. Lommel SK score 0.9 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of Waasland-Beveren games and 2 of Lommel SK games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Waasland-Beverenrecent form-1%
Waasland-Beveren form L W W L LLommel SK form D L L W WHome edge in this league 17% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Waasland-Beveren vs Lommel SK: Waasland-Beveren are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Waasland-Beveren host Lommel SK in the Belgian Pro League on Fri 9 Oct, 18:45 at Freethielstadion. Our prediction for Waasland-Beveren vs Lommel SK is Waasland-Beveren to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Waasland-Beveren form

Waasland-Beveren have 3 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses in their last 7 games, with 7 goals scored and 11 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses from 3. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, L, newest first.

Lommel SK form

Lommel SK have 2 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in their last 7 games, with 6 goals scored and 8 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss from 3. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, W, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Waasland-Beveren to score about 1.8 goals and Lommel SK about 1.1. That points to Waasland-Beveren to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is Waasland-Beveren to win and Over 2.5 at 3.00.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 7 games in all competitions.

Waasland-BeverenLommel SK
Games played77
Wins32
Draws02
Losses43
Goals scored76
Goals conceded118
Scored per game1.00.9
Conceded per game1.61.1
Home record3W 0D 0L1W 1D 2L
Away record0W 0D 4L1W 1D 1L
Clean sheets43%43%
Both teams scored14%14%
Over 2.5 goals57%29%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Waasland-Beveren to win51%1.971.80-8.6%
A Draw24%4.233.75-11.3%
Lommel SK to win21%4.693.90-16.8%
Over 2.5 goals53%1.881.61-14.7%
Under 2.5 goals41%2.462.10-14.7%
Waasland-Beveren -0.550%2.001.71-14.4%
Lommel SK +0.544%2.281.91-16.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals79%1.27
Over 2.5 goals55%1.81
Over 3.5 goals33%3.05
Both teams to score56%1.79
Waasland-Beveren or Draw78%1.28
Lommel SK or Draw46%2.17
Waasland-Beveren to win and Over 2.535%2.83
Lommel SK to win and Over 2.513%7.57
Waasland-Beveren clean sheet34%2.94
Lommel SK clean sheet16%6.13

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.5%
2-19.8%
1-09.4%
2-09.1%
0-06.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Waasland-Beveren vs Lommel SK?

Our prediction for Waasland-Beveren vs Lommel SK is Waasland-Beveren to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Waasland-Beveren vs Lommel SK?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Waasland-Beveren to score 1.8 goals and Lommel SK 1.1.

Will both teams score in Waasland-Beveren vs Lommel SK?

Both teams to score has a 56% chance. Both sides scored in 1 of Waasland-Beveren last 7 games and 1 of Lommel SK last 7.

How are Waasland-Beveren playing?

Waasland-Beveren have 3 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses in their last 7 games, with 7 goals scored and 11 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses from 3. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, L, newest first.

How are Lommel SK playing?

Lommel SK have 2 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in their last 7 games, with 6 goals scored and 8 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss from 3. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, W, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Waasland-Beveren vs Lommel SK?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Waasland-Beveren against Lommel SK. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
  • 18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
  • No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
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