EagleEyeOdds eagleEagleEyeOddsToday's picks
PredictionsBest bets by countryKenyaNigeriaGhanaSouth AfricaUnited KingdomUnited StatesIndiaTanzaniaUgandaZambiaCameroonIvory CoastAll 54 countriesNewsOur recordHow Eagle 2.0 worksResponsible gambling
Predictions › United States › Washington Capitals vs Tampa Bay Lightning
NHLTue 17 Nov, 19:30 United States time

Washington Capitals vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction

Benchmark International Arena

Washington CapitalsAway
2.7 : 3.4
projected goals
Tampa Bay LightningHome
42%Capitals
58%Lightning
Eagle safe pickUnder 8 goals
-505

Quick answer

Our prediction for Washington Capitals vs Tampa Bay Lightning is Tampa Bay Lightning to win, with a 58% chance. We project Washington Capitals 2.7 and Tampa Bay Lightning 3.4. Our best bet is Under 8 goals at -505.

Prediction
Tampa Bay Lightning to win
Chance
58%
Projected score
Washington Capitals 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Projected total
6.1 goals
Best bet
Under 8 goals at -505

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 8 goals
84% chanceFair price -5052 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Capitals to win
37% chanceFair price +1731 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Tampa Bay Lightning 58% and Washington Capitals 42%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Tampa Bay Lightning won 3 of their last 5 and Washington Capitals won 3 of their last 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Tampa Bay Lightning won 8 of their last 9 games at home. Washington Capitals won 4 of their last 7 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Tampa Bay Lightning score 3.5 goals a game and let in 3.1. Washington Capitals score 3.5 and let in 3.0. Their recent games average 6.7 and 6.5 goals in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 4 meetings, Tampa Bay Lightning won 3 and Washington Capitals won 1. The last one ended Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Washington Capitals 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 8 goals has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Lightningrest between games-5%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Washington Capitals vs Tampa Bay Lightning: Tampa Bay Lightning are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Tampa Bay Lightning host Washington Capitals in the NHL on Tue 17 Nov, 19:30 at Benchmark International Arena. Our prediction for Washington Capitals vs Tampa Bay Lightning is Tampa Bay Lightning to win, with a 58% chance. We project Washington Capitals 2.7 and Tampa Bay Lightning 3.4. Our best bet is Under 8 goals at -505.

Tampa Bay Lightning form

Tampa Bay Lightning have 12 wins and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 71 goals scored and 63 conceded. At home they have 8 wins and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Washington Capitals form

Washington Capitals have 13 wins and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 70 goals scored and 60 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 3 losses from 7. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 4 times in our records. Tampa Bay Lightning won 3, Washington Capitals won 1. Last time out it finished Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Washington Capitals 1.

Our call

We expect Washington Capitals to score about 2.7 goals and Tampa Bay Lightning about 3.4. That points to Tampa Bay Lightning to win. Our safest bet is Under 8 goals at -505. Our bold bet is Capitals to win at +173.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

LightningCapitals
Games played2020
Wins1213
Losses87
Goals scored7170
Goals conceded6360
Scored per game3.53.5
Conceded per game3.13.0
Home record8W 1L9W 4L
Away record4W 7L4W 3L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Lightning spreadCoversFair
Lightning -1.536%+176
Lightning -0.553%-111
Lightning +0.568%-217
Total goalsOverUnder
5.559%41%
6.542%58%
7.526%74%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Lightning +3.5 wins if Lightning win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
NHL

Kucherov Sets Up Two Goals in Lightning Victory After Trade Request

Nikita Kucherov recorded two assists as the Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Detroit Red Wings 4-2 on Tuesday.

4 Nov 2026
NHL

Nikita Kucherov Requests Trade Away From Tampa Bay Lightning

Lightning star forward Nikita Kucherov has requested a trade after contract negotiations stalled on Friday.

31 Oct 2026
NHL

Nikita Kucherov Takes Top Spot on Lightning All Time Scoring List

Nikita Kucherov surpassed Steven Stamkos to become Tampa Bay's all time scoring leader on Saturday night against Utah.

25 Oct 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Washington Capitals vs Tampa Bay Lightning?

Our prediction for Washington Capitals vs Tampa Bay Lightning is Tampa Bay Lightning to win, with a 58% chance. We project Washington Capitals 2.7 and Tampa Bay Lightning 3.4. Our best bet is Under 8 goals at -505.

What is the projected score for Washington Capitals vs Tampa Bay Lightning?

We project Washington Capitals 2.7 and Tampa Bay Lightning 3.4, about 6.1 goals in total.

How are Tampa Bay Lightning playing?

Tampa Bay Lightning have 12 wins and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 71 goals scored and 63 conceded. At home they have 8 wins and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, L, newest first.

How are Washington Capitals playing?

Washington Capitals have 13 wins and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 70 goals scored and 60 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 3 losses from 7. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Tampa Bay Lightning and Washington Capitals last met?

It ended Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Washington Capitals 1. In the last 4 meetings Tampa Bay Lightning won 3 and Washington Capitals won 1.

What is the best bet for Washington Capitals vs Tampa Bay Lightning?

Under 8 goals at -505, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Lightning against Capitals. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
  • 18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
  • No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
  • Betting can harm you. If it stops being fun, if you chase losses, or if you hide it from people close to you, stop and get help. Free and private support is available from BeGambleAware, GamCare and Gamblers Anonymous. Read our responsible gambling page for tools that block betting sites.

Full terms are on our disclaimer and terms pages.

Note: Never stake money you need for rent, food, bills or anyone who depends on you.