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Predictions › United Kingdom › Watford vs Burnley
ChampionshipSat 10 Oct, 15:00 United Kingdom time

Watford vs Burnley prediction

Vicarage Road

WatfordHome
1.35 : 1.43
expected goals
BurnleyAway
35%Watford
27%Draw
39%Burnley
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
3/10

Quick answer

Our prediction for Watford vs Burnley is Burnley to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

Prediction
Burnley to win
Chance
39%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Watford 1.4, Burnley 1.4
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 3/10
Both teams to score
57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 3/102 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 7/11 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Watford 35%, the draw 27% and Burnley 39%. The bookmakers agree and make Burnley the favourite at 5/4.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Watford took 3 points from their last 5 games and Burnley took 3 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Watford won 4 of their last 11 games at home. Burnley won 0 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Watford score 0.8 goals a game and let in 1.9. Burnley score 0.8 and let in 1.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Watford games and 9 of Burnley games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Watfordrecent form-4%
  • Burnleyrecent form-3%
Watford form L L W L LBurnley form D L D L DHome edge in this league 20% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Watford vs Burnley: Burnley shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Watford host Burnley in the Championship on Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 at Vicarage Road. Our prediction for Watford vs Burnley is Burnley to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

Watford form

Watford have 4 wins, 4 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 16 goals scored and 38 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, L, newest first.

Burnley form

Burnley have 0 wins, 9 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 16 goals scored and 37 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, L, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect Watford to score about 1.4 goals and Burnley about 1.4. That points to Burnley to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7/1.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

WatfordBurnley
Games played2020
Wins40
Draws49
Losses1211
Goals scored1616
Goals conceded3837
Scored per game0.80.8
Conceded per game1.91.9
Home record4W 3D 4L0W 7D 3L
Away record0W 1D 8L0W 2D 8L
Clean sheets10%10%
Both teams scored55%70%
Over 2.5 goals50%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Watford to win33%2/12/1-2.8%
A Draw26%11/45/2-7.7%
Burnley to win36%7/45/4-18.8%
Over 2.5 goals49%21/204/5-12.7%
Under 2.5 goals44%5/410/11-13.3%
Watford +0.555%5/64/7-12.8%
Burnley -0.539%8/511/10-18.5%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals77%2/7
Over 2.5 goals53%10/11
Over 3.5 goals30%9/4
Both teams to score57%8/11
Watford or Draw61%8/13
Burnley or Draw65%8/15
Watford to win and Over 2.521%7/2
Burnley to win and Over 2.524%3/1
Watford clean sheet24%10/3
Burnley clean sheet26%11/4

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.7%
1-28.6%
0-18.1%
2-18.1%
1-07.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Watford vs Burnley?

Our prediction for Watford vs Burnley is Burnley to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

What is the score prediction for Watford vs Burnley?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect Watford to score 1.4 goals and Burnley 1.4.

Will both teams score in Watford vs Burnley?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Watford last 20 games and 14 of Burnley last 20.

How are Watford playing?

Watford have 4 wins, 4 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 16 goals scored and 38 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, L, newest first.

How are Burnley playing?

Burnley have 0 wins, 9 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 16 goals scored and 37 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, L, D, newest first.

What is the best bet for Watford vs Burnley?

Over 1.5 goals at 3/10, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Watford against Burnley. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
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