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Predictions › United Kingdom › Watford vs Lincoln City
ChampionshipTue 3 Nov, 19:45 United Kingdom time

Watford vs Lincoln City prediction

Vicarage Road

WatfordHome
1.10 : 1.11
expected goals
Lincoln CityAway
35%Watford
31%Draw
35%Lincoln City
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
2/9

Quick answer

Our prediction for Watford vs Lincoln City is Lincoln City to win, with a 35% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 2/9.

Prediction
Lincoln City to win
Chance
35%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Watford 1.1, Lincoln City 1.1
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 2/9
Both teams to score
46%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
81% chanceFair price 2/92 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 6/11 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Watford 35%, the draw 31% and Lincoln City 35%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Watford took 3 points from their last 5 games and Lincoln City took 4 from 5. Lincoln City come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Watford won 4 of their last 11 games at home. Lincoln City won 7 of their last 12 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Watford score 0.7 goals a game and let in 2.1. Lincoln City score 1.6 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Watford games and 13 of Lincoln City games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Watfordrecent form-3%
  • Lincoln Cityrecent form-4%
  • Watfordrest between games-5%
  • Lincoln Cityrest between games-5%
Watford form D W L L LLincoln City form D D L L LHome edge in this league 19% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Watford vs Lincoln City: Lincoln City shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Watford host Lincoln City in the Championship on Tue 3 Nov, 19:45 at Vicarage Road. Our prediction for Watford vs Lincoln City is Lincoln City to win, with a 35% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 2/9.

Watford form

Watford have 4 wins, 3 draws and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 14 goals scored and 42 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, L, newest first.

Lincoln City form

Lincoln City have 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, L, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Watford to score about 1.1 goals and Lincoln City about 1.1. That points to Lincoln City to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 2/9. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 6/1.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

WatfordLincoln City
Games played2020
Wins410
Draws34
Losses136
Goals scored1431
Goals conceded4232
Scored per game0.71.6
Conceded per game2.11.6
Home record4W 2D 5L3W 2D 3L
Away record0W 1D 8L7W 2D 3L
Clean sheets10%30%
Both teams scored45%55%
Over 2.5 goals45%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals66%8/15
Over 2.5 goals38%13/8
Over 3.5 goals18%9/2
Both teams to score46%6/5
Watford or Draw65%8/15
Lincoln City or Draw65%8/15
Watford to win and Over 2.517%5/1
Lincoln City to win and Over 2.517%5/1
Watford clean sheet33%2/1
Lincoln City clean sheet33%2/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-114.2%
0-011.7%
0-111.3%
1-011.3%
1-27.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Watford vs Lincoln City?

Our prediction for Watford vs Lincoln City is Lincoln City to win, with a 35% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 2/9.

What is the score prediction for Watford vs Lincoln City?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-0 and 0-1. We expect Watford to score 1.1 goals and Lincoln City 1.1.

Will both teams score in Watford vs Lincoln City?

Both teams to score has a 46% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Watford last 20 games and 11 of Lincoln City last 20.

How are Watford playing?

Watford have 4 wins, 3 draws and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 14 goals scored and 42 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, L, newest first.

How are Lincoln City playing?

Lincoln City have 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, L, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for Watford vs Lincoln City?

Under 3.5 goals at 2/9, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Watford against Lincoln City. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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