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Predictions › United Kingdom › Watford vs Middlesbrough
ChampionshipSat 7 Nov, 15:00 United Kingdom time

Watford vs Middlesbrough prediction

Vicarage Road

WatfordHome
1.15 : 1.90
expected goals
MiddlesbroughAway
22%Watford
24%Draw
54%Boro
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
2/9

Quick answer

Our prediction for Watford vs Middlesbrough is Middlesbrough to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/9.

Prediction
Middlesbrough to win
Chance
54%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Watford 1.1, Middlesbrough 1.9
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 2/9
Both teams to score
59%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
82% chanceFair price 2/92 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Middlesbrough to win and Over 2.5
37% chanceFair price 7/41 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Watford 22%, the draw 24% and Middlesbrough 54%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Watford took 3 points from their last 5 games and Middlesbrough took 11 from 5. Middlesbrough come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Watford won 4 of their last 11 games at home. Middlesbrough won 4 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Watford score 0.7 goals a game and let in 2.1. Middlesbrough score 1.9 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Watford games and 14 of Middlesbrough games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Watford won 1 and Middlesbrough won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Middlesbrough 5, Watford 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Watfordrecent form-3%
  • Bororecent form+3%
Watford form D W L L LBoro form D D W W DHome edge in this league 19% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Watford vs Middlesbrough: Middlesbrough are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Watford host Middlesbrough in the Championship on Sat 7 Nov, 15:00 at Vicarage Road. Our prediction for Watford vs Middlesbrough is Middlesbrough to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/9.

Watford form

Watford have 4 wins, 3 draws and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 14 goals scored and 42 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, L, newest first.

Middlesbrough form

Middlesbrough have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Watford won 1, Middlesbrough won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Middlesbrough 5, Watford 1.

Our call

We expect Watford to score about 1.1 goals and Middlesbrough about 1.9. That points to Middlesbrough to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/9. Our bold bet is Middlesbrough to win and Over 2.5 at 7/4.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

WatfordBoro
Games played2020
Wins410
Draws36
Losses134
Goals scored1439
Goals conceded4227
Scored per game0.71.9
Conceded per game2.11.4
Home record4W 2D 5L6W 3D 0L
Away record0W 1D 8L4W 3D 4L
Clean sheets10%20%
Both teams scored45%70%
Over 2.5 goals45%70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals81%2/9
Over 2.5 goals59%8/11
Over 3.5 goals36%7/4
Both teams to score59%8/11
Watford or Draw46%6/5
Middlesbrough or Draw78%2/7
Watford to win and Over 2.514%6/1
Middlesbrough to win and Over 2.537%13/8
Watford clean sheet15%11/2
Middlesbrough clean sheet32%85/40

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.0%
1-29.8%
0-28.6%
0-18.4%
1-36.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Watford vs Middlesbrough?

Our prediction for Watford vs Middlesbrough is Middlesbrough to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/9.

What is the score prediction for Watford vs Middlesbrough?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-2. We expect Watford to score 1.1 goals and Middlesbrough 1.9.

Will both teams score in Watford vs Middlesbrough?

Both teams to score has a 59% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Watford last 20 games and 14 of Middlesbrough last 20.

How are Watford playing?

Watford have 4 wins, 3 draws and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 14 goals scored and 42 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, L, newest first.

How are Middlesbrough playing?

Middlesbrough have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, D, newest first.

What happened when Watford and Middlesbrough last met?

It ended Middlesbrough 5, Watford 1. In the last 2 meetings Watford won 1 and Middlesbrough won 1.

What is the best bet for Watford vs Middlesbrough?

Over 1.5 goals at 2/9, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Watford against Boro. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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