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Predictions › Australia › Wellington Phoenix FC vs Central Coast Mariners
A-LeagueSun 25 Oct, 02:00 Australia time

Wellington Phoenix FC vs Central Coast Mariners prediction

Sky Stadium

Wellington Phoenix FCHome
1.73 : 1.50
expected goals
Central Coast MarinersAway
43%Wellington
24%Draw
33%CC Mariners
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.22

Quick answer

Our prediction for Wellington Phoenix FC vs Central Coast Mariners is Wellington Phoenix FC to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

Prediction
Wellington Phoenix FC to win
Chance
43%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Wellington Phoenix FC 1.7, Central Coast Mariners 1.5
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.22
Both teams to score
64%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
82% chanceFair price 1.222 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Wellington Phoenix FC to win and Over 2.5
28% chanceFair price 3.541 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Wellington Phoenix FC 43%, the draw 24% and Central Coast Mariners 33%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Wellington Phoenix FC took 9 points from their last 5 games and Central Coast Mariners took 5 from 5. Wellington Phoenix FC come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Wellington Phoenix FC won 3 of their last 9 games at home. Central Coast Mariners won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Wellington Phoenix FC score 1.4 goals a game and let in 2.0. Central Coast Mariners score 1.4 and let in 1.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Wellington Phoenix FC games and 15 of Central Coast Mariners games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Wellington Phoenix FC won 1 and Central Coast Mariners won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Wellington Phoenix FC 3, Central Coast Mariners 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Wellingtonrecent form+1%
  • CC Marinersrecent form-1%
  • Wellingtonrest between games-3%
  • CC Marinersrest between games-3%
Wellington form L W L W WCC Mariners form L W D L DHome edge in this league 15% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Wellington Phoenix FC vs Central Coast Mariners: Wellington Phoenix FC shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Wellington Phoenix FC host Central Coast Mariners in the A-League on Sun 25 Oct, 02:00 at Sky Stadium. Our prediction for Wellington Phoenix FC vs Central Coast Mariners is Wellington Phoenix FC to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

Wellington Phoenix FC form

Wellington Phoenix FC have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 40 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, W, newest first.

Central Coast Mariners form

Central Coast Mariners have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 34 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Wellington Phoenix FC won 1, Central Coast Mariners won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Wellington Phoenix FC 3, Central Coast Mariners 1.

Our call

We expect Wellington Phoenix FC to score about 1.7 goals and Central Coast Mariners about 1.5. That points to Wellington Phoenix FC to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22. Our bold bet is Wellington Phoenix FC to win and Over 2.5 at 3.54.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

WellingtonCC Mariners
Games played2020
Wins76
Draws46
Losses98
Goals scored2828
Goals conceded4034
Scored per game1.41.4
Conceded per game2.01.7
Home record3W 2D 4L2W 5D 3L
Away record4W 2D 5L4W 1D 5L
Clean sheets20%20%
Both teams scored60%70%
Over 2.5 goals70%75%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals84%1.19
Over 2.5 goals62%1.60
Over 3.5 goals40%2.48
Both teams to score64%1.55
Wellington Phoenix FC or Draw67%1.49
Central Coast Mariners or Draw57%1.74
Wellington Phoenix FC to win and Over 2.530%3.29
Central Coast Mariners to win and Over 2.523%4.32
Wellington Phoenix FC clean sheet22%4.47
Central Coast Mariners clean sheet18%5.61

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.9%
2-18.9%
1-27.7%
2-26.6%
1-06.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Wellington Phoenix FC vs Central Coast Mariners?

Our prediction for Wellington Phoenix FC vs Central Coast Mariners is Wellington Phoenix FC to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

What is the score prediction for Wellington Phoenix FC vs Central Coast Mariners?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect Wellington Phoenix FC to score 1.7 goals and Central Coast Mariners 1.5.

Will both teams score in Wellington Phoenix FC vs Central Coast Mariners?

Both teams to score has a 64% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Wellington Phoenix FC last 20 games and 14 of Central Coast Mariners last 20.

How are Wellington Phoenix FC playing?

Wellington Phoenix FC have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 40 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, W, newest first.

How are Central Coast Mariners playing?

Central Coast Mariners have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 34 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, L, D, newest first.

What happened when Wellington Phoenix FC and Central Coast Mariners last met?

It ended Wellington Phoenix FC 3, Central Coast Mariners 1. In the last 2 meetings Wellington Phoenix FC won 1 and Central Coast Mariners won 0.

What is the best bet for Wellington Phoenix FC vs Central Coast Mariners?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.22, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Wellington against CC Mariners. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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