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Predictions › Australia › Wellington Phoenix vs Macarthur FC
A-LeagueSun 22 Nov, 02:00 Australia time

Wellington Phoenix vs Macarthur FC prediction

Sky Stadium

Wellington PhoenixHome
1.73 : 1.19
expected goals
Macarthur FCAway
49%Wellington
25%Draw
26%Macarthur
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.26

Quick answer

Our prediction for Wellington Phoenix vs Macarthur FC is Wellington Phoenix to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26.

Prediction
Wellington Phoenix to win
Chance
49%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Wellington Phoenix 1.7, Macarthur FC 1.2
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.26
Both teams to score
58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
79% chanceFair price 1.262 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Wellington Phoenix to win and Over 2.5
32% chanceFair price 3.121 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Wellington Phoenix 49%, the draw 25% and Macarthur FC 26%. The bookmakers agree and make Wellington Phoenix the favourite at 1.83.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Wellington Phoenix took 10 points from their last 5 games and Macarthur FC took 8 from 5. Wellington Phoenix come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Wellington Phoenix won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Macarthur FC won 2 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Wellington Phoenix score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.4. Macarthur FC score 1.4 and let in 1.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Wellington Phoenix games and 13 of Macarthur FC games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Wellington Phoenix won 0 and Macarthur FC won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Macarthur FC 4, Wellington Phoenix 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Wellingtonrecent form+3%
  • Macarthurrecent form+1%
Wellington form D W W W LMacarthur form L D D W WHome edge in this league 18% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Wellington Phoenix vs Macarthur FC: Wellington Phoenix are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Wellington Phoenix host Macarthur FC in the A-League on Sun 22 Nov, 02:00 at Sky Stadium. Our prediction for Wellington Phoenix vs Macarthur FC is Wellington Phoenix to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26.

Wellington Phoenix form

Wellington Phoenix have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Macarthur FC form

Macarthur FC have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 35 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Wellington Phoenix won 0, Macarthur FC won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Macarthur FC 4, Wellington Phoenix 0.

Our call

We expect Wellington Phoenix to score about 1.7 goals and Macarthur FC about 1.2. That points to Wellington Phoenix to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26. Our bold bet is Wellington Phoenix to win and Over 2.5 at 3.12.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

WellingtonMacarthur
Games played2020
Wins96
Draws56
Losses68
Goals scored2929
Goals conceded2935
Scored per game1.41.4
Conceded per game1.41.8
Home record4W 2D 3L4W 3D 4L
Away record5W 3D 3L2W 3D 4L
Clean sheets35%15%
Both teams scored45%70%
Over 2.5 goals60%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Wellington Phoenix to win46%2.171.83-15.6%
A Draw24%4.093.80-7.0%
Macarthur FC to win25%4.003.70-7.5%
Over 2.5 goals51%1.971.65-16.7%
Under 2.5 goals42%2.362.05-13.1%
Wellington Phoenix -0.547%2.111.74-17.6%
Macarthur FC +0.546%2.191.87-14.5%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals79%1.26
Over 2.5 goals56%1.80
Over 3.5 goals33%3.00
Both teams to score58%1.73
Wellington Phoenix or Draw74%1.34
Macarthur FC or Draw51%1.97
Wellington Phoenix to win and Over 2.533%3.07
Macarthur FC to win and Over 2.516%6.26
Wellington Phoenix clean sheet31%3.28
Macarthur FC clean sheet18%5.62

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.8%
2-19.6%
1-08.7%
2-08.1%
1-26.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Wellington Phoenix vs Macarthur FC?

Our prediction for Wellington Phoenix vs Macarthur FC is Wellington Phoenix to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26.

What is the score prediction for Wellington Phoenix vs Macarthur FC?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Wellington Phoenix to score 1.7 goals and Macarthur FC 1.2.

Will both teams score in Wellington Phoenix vs Macarthur FC?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Wellington Phoenix last 20 games and 14 of Macarthur FC last 20.

How are Wellington Phoenix playing?

Wellington Phoenix have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, W, L, newest first.

How are Macarthur FC playing?

Macarthur FC have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 35 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Wellington Phoenix and Macarthur FC last met?

It ended Macarthur FC 4, Wellington Phoenix 0. In the last 2 meetings Wellington Phoenix won 0 and Macarthur FC won 2.

What is the best bet for Wellington Phoenix vs Macarthur FC?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.26, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Wellington against Macarthur. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
  • 18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
  • No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
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