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Predictions › Australia › Wellington Phoenix FC vs Melbourne Victory
A-LeagueSun 18 Oct, 02:00 Australia time

Wellington Phoenix FC vs Melbourne Victory prediction

Sky Stadium

Wellington Phoenix FCHome
1.43 : 1.63
expected goals
Melbourne VictoryAway
33%Wellington
25%Draw
42%Melbourne V
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.27

Quick answer

Our prediction for Wellington Phoenix FC vs Melbourne Victory is Melbourne Victory to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27.

Prediction
Melbourne Victory to win
Chance
42%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Wellington Phoenix FC 1.4, Melbourne Victory 1.6
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.27
Both teams to score
62%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
79% chanceFair price 1.272 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Melbourne Victory to win and Over 2.5
28% chanceFair price 3.571 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Wellington Phoenix FC 33%, the draw 25% and Melbourne Victory 42%. The bookmakers agree and make Melbourne Victory the favourite at 2.20.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Wellington Phoenix FC took 9 points from their last 5 games and Melbourne Victory took 5 from 5. Wellington Phoenix FC come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Wellington Phoenix FC won 3 of their last 9 games at home. Melbourne Victory won 4 of their last 8 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Wellington Phoenix FC score 1.4 goals a game and let in 2.0. Melbourne Victory score 2.0 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Wellington Phoenix FC games and 12 of Melbourne Victory games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 3 meetings, Wellington Phoenix FC won 1 and Melbourne Victory won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Melbourne Victory 0, Wellington Phoenix FC 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Wellingtonrecent form+1%
  • Wellingtonrest between games-3%
  • Melbourne Vrest between games-3%
Wellington form L W L W WMelbourne V form D L W D DHome edge in this league 15% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Wellington Phoenix FC vs Melbourne Victory: Melbourne Victory shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Wellington Phoenix FC host Melbourne Victory in the A-League on Sun 18 Oct, 02:00 at Sky Stadium. Our prediction for Wellington Phoenix FC vs Melbourne Victory is Melbourne Victory to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27.

Wellington Phoenix FC form

Wellington Phoenix FC have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 40 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, W, newest first.

Melbourne Victory form

Melbourne Victory have 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 3 times in our records. Wellington Phoenix FC won 1, Melbourne Victory won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Melbourne Victory 0, Wellington Phoenix FC 1.

Our call

We expect Wellington Phoenix FC to score about 1.4 goals and Melbourne Victory about 1.6. That points to Melbourne Victory to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27. Our bold bet is Melbourne Victory to win and Over 2.5 at 3.57.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

WellingtonMelbourne V
Games played2020
Wins710
Draws45
Losses95
Goals scored2840
Goals conceded4023
Scored per game1.42.0
Conceded per game2.01.1
Home record3W 2D 4L6W 3D 3L
Away record4W 2D 5L4W 2D 2L
Clean sheets20%15%
Both teams scored60%65%
Over 2.5 goals70%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Wellington Phoenix FC to win32%3.122.80-10.2%
A Draw25%4.043.65-9.6%
Melbourne Victory to win39%2.572.20-14.4%
Over 2.5 goals55%1.811.54-14.9%
Under 2.5 goals38%2.632.25-14.4%
Wellington Phoenix FC +0.553%1.871.59-15.1%
Melbourne Victory -0.540%2.512.10-16.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals82%1.23
Over 2.5 goals59%1.70
Over 3.5 goals37%2.74
Both teams to score62%1.62
Wellington Phoenix FC or Draw58%1.72
Melbourne Victory or Draw67%1.49
Wellington Phoenix FC to win and Over 2.522%4.51
Melbourne Victory to win and Over 2.528%3.51
Wellington Phoenix FC clean sheet20%5.09
Melbourne Victory clean sheet24%4.17

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.6%
1-28.9%
2-17.8%
0-17.0%
2-26.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news
A-League

New Melbourne Victory Boss Savarese Ready for Historic Cup Final

New Melbourne Victory coach Giovanni Savarese reflects on his connection to Australian football culture ahead of a historic Australia Cup final.

16 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Wellington Phoenix FC vs Melbourne Victory?

Our prediction for Wellington Phoenix FC vs Melbourne Victory is Melbourne Victory to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27.

What is the score prediction for Wellington Phoenix FC vs Melbourne Victory?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect Wellington Phoenix FC to score 1.4 goals and Melbourne Victory 1.6.

Will both teams score in Wellington Phoenix FC vs Melbourne Victory?

Both teams to score has a 62% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Wellington Phoenix FC last 20 games and 13 of Melbourne Victory last 20.

How are Wellington Phoenix FC playing?

Wellington Phoenix FC have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 40 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, W, newest first.

How are Melbourne Victory playing?

Melbourne Victory have 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, D, L, newest first.

What happened when Wellington Phoenix FC and Melbourne Victory last met?

It ended Melbourne Victory 0, Wellington Phoenix FC 1. In the last 3 meetings Wellington Phoenix FC won 1 and Melbourne Victory won 2.

What is the best bet for Wellington Phoenix FC vs Melbourne Victory?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.27, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Wellington against Melbourne V. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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