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Predictions › Germany › Werder Bremen vs Hamburg SV
BundesligaSun 22 Nov, 16:30 Germany time

Werder Bremen vs Hamburg SV prediction

Weserstadion

Werder BremenHome
1.92 : 1.19
expected goals
Hamburg SVAway
54%Bremen
23%Draw
23%Hamburg
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.22

Quick answer

Our prediction for Werder Bremen vs Hamburg SV is Werder Bremen to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

Prediction
Werder Bremen to win
Chance
54%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Werder Bremen 1.9, Hamburg SV 1.2
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.22
Both teams to score
60%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
82% chanceFair price 1.222 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Werder Bremen to win and Over 2.5
37% chanceFair price 2.741 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Werder Bremen 54%, the draw 23% and Hamburg SV 23%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Werder Bremen took 8 points from their last 5 games and Hamburg SV took 9 from 5. Hamburg SV come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Werder Bremen won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Hamburg SV won 3 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Werder Bremen score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.6. Hamburg SV score 1.2 and let in 2.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Werder Bremen games and 13 of Hamburg SV games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Werder Bremen won 1 and Hamburg SV won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Werder Bremen 3, Hamburg SV 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Hamburgrecent form-1%
Bremen form L W L W DHamburg form W L L L WHome edge in this league 26% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Werder Bremen vs Hamburg SV: Werder Bremen are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Werder Bremen host Hamburg SV in the Bundesliga on Sun 22 Nov, 16:30 at Weserstadion. Our prediction for Werder Bremen vs Hamburg SV is Werder Bremen to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

Werder Bremen form

Werder Bremen have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, D, D, newest first.

Hamburg SV form

Hamburg SV have 7 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 40 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 7 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Werder Bremen won 1, Hamburg SV won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Werder Bremen 3, Hamburg SV 1.

Our call

We expect Werder Bremen to score about 1.9 goals and Hamburg SV about 1.2. That points to Werder Bremen to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22. Our bold bet is Werder Bremen to win and Over 2.5 at 2.74.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

BremenHamburg
Games played2020
Wins87
Draws43
Losses810
Goals scored3124
Goals conceded3140
Scored per game1.61.2
Conceded per game1.62.0
Home record5W 1D 4L4W 2D 3L
Away record3W 3D 4L3W 1D 7L
Clean sheets15%5%
Both teams scored65%65%
Over 2.5 goals55%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals82%1.22
Over 2.5 goals60%1.67
Over 3.5 goals38%2.65
Both teams to score60%1.67
Werder Bremen or Draw77%1.30
Hamburg SV or Draw46%2.16
Werder Bremen to win and Over 2.537%2.67
Hamburg SV to win and Over 2.515%6.64
Werder Bremen clean sheet30%3.30
Hamburg SV clean sheet15%6.79

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.8%
2-19.8%
2-08.2%
1-07.9%
3-16.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Werder Bremen vs Hamburg SV?

Our prediction for Werder Bremen vs Hamburg SV is Werder Bremen to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

What is the score prediction for Werder Bremen vs Hamburg SV?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 2-0. We expect Werder Bremen to score 1.9 goals and Hamburg SV 1.2.

Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs Hamburg SV?

Both teams to score has a 60% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Werder Bremen last 20 games and 13 of Hamburg SV last 20.

How are Werder Bremen playing?

Werder Bremen have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, D, D, newest first.

How are Hamburg SV playing?

Hamburg SV have 7 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 40 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 7 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Werder Bremen and Hamburg SV last met?

It ended Werder Bremen 3, Hamburg SV 1. In the last 2 meetings Werder Bremen won 1 and Hamburg SV won 1.

What is the best bet for Werder Bremen vs Hamburg SV?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.22, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Bremen against Hamburg. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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