Predictions › Germany › Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07

BundesligaSat 17 Oct, 13:30 Germany time

Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 prediction

Weserstadion

Werder BremenHome

1.87 : 1.26

expected goals

SC Paderborn 07Away

51%Bremen

24%Draw

25%Paderborn

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.25

Quick answer

Our prediction for Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 is Werder Bremen to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

Prediction: Werder Bremen to win
Chance: 51%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Werder Bremen 1.9, SC Paderborn 07 1.3
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.25
Both teams to score: 61%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

80% chanceFair price 1.252 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Werder Bremen to win and Over 2.5

34% chanceFair price 2.911 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Werder Bremen 51%, the draw 24% and SC Paderborn 07 25%. The bookmakers agree and make Werder Bremen the favourite at 1.77.
2
Recent form
Werder Bremen took 7 points from their last 5 games and SC Paderborn 07 took 7 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.
3
Home and away
Werder Bremen won 4 of their last 11 games at home. SC Paderborn 07 won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Werder Bremen score 1.2 goals a game and let in 1.6. SC Paderborn 07 score 1.7 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Werder Bremen games and 13 of SC Paderborn 07 games in that run.
5
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Bremenrecent form+3%

Bremen form W D W L WPaderborn form W L L D WHome edge in this league 24% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07: Werder Bremen are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Werder Bremen host SC Paderborn 07 in the Bundesliga on Sat 17 Oct, 13:30 at Weserstadion. Our prediction for Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 is Werder Bremen to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

Werder Bremen form

Werder Bremen have 6 wins, 3 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 33 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, L, L, newest first.

SC Paderborn 07 form

SC Paderborn 07 have 9 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, D, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Werder Bremen to score about 1.9 goals and SC Paderborn 07 about 1.3. That points to Werder Bremen to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25. Our bold bet is Werder Bremen to win and Over 2.5 at 2.91.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Bremen	Paderborn
Games played	20	20
Wins	6	9
Draws	3	6
Losses	11	5
Goals scored	24	34
Goals conceded	33	30
Scored per game	1.2	1.7
Conceded per game	1.6	1.5
Home record	4W 1D 6L	6W 2D 2L
Away record	2W 2D 5L	3W 4D 3L
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Both teams scored	60%	70%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Werder Bremen to win	48%	2.10	1.77	-15.6%
A Draw	24%	4.26	3.85	-9.5%
SC Paderborn 07 to win	25%	4.05	3.65	-9.8%
Over 3.5 goals	37%	2.69	2.30	-14.4%
Under 3.5 goals	57%	1.76	1.56	-11.6%
Werder Bremen -0.5	49%	2.03	1.69	-16.7%
SC Paderborn 07 +0.5	44%	2.27	1.95	-14.2%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	83%	1.21
Over 2.5 goals	60%	1.65
Over 3.5 goals	38%	2.62
Both teams to score	61%	1.64
Werder Bremen or Draw	75%	1.33
SC Paderborn 07 or Draw	49%	2.05
Werder Bremen to win and Over 2.5	36%	2.79
SC Paderborn 07 to win and Over 2.5	17%	6.00
Werder Bremen clean sheet	28%	3.51
SC Paderborn 07 clean sheet	15%	6.49

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.9%

2-19.6%

2-07.7%

1-07.6%

1-26.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07?

Our prediction for Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 is Werder Bremen to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

What is the score prediction for Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 2-0. We expect Werder Bremen to score 1.9 goals and SC Paderborn 07 1.3.

Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07?

Both teams to score has a 61% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Werder Bremen last 20 games and 14 of SC Paderborn 07 last 20.

How are Werder Bremen playing?

How are SC Paderborn 07 playing?

What is the best bet for Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.25, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Bremen against Paderborn. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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