Predictions › Germany › Werder Bremen vs TSG Hoffenheim

BundesligaSat 31 Oct, 14:30 Germany time

Werder Bremen vs TSG Hoffenheim prediction

Weserstadion

Werder BremenHome

1.61 : 1.72

expected goals

TSG HoffenheimAway

36%Bremen

24%Draw

40%Hoffenheim

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.19

Quick answer

Our prediction for Werder Bremen vs TSG Hoffenheim is TSG Hoffenheim to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19.

Prediction: TSG Hoffenheim to win
Chance: 40%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Werder Bremen 1.6, TSG Hoffenheim 1.7
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.19
Both teams to score: 66%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

84% chanceFair price 1.192 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

TSG Hoffenheim to win and Over 2.5

28% chanceFair price 3.571 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Werder Bremen 36%, the draw 24% and TSG Hoffenheim 40%. The bookmakers agree and make TSG Hoffenheim the favourite at 2.10.
2
Recent form
Werder Bremen took 9 points from their last 5 games and TSG Hoffenheim took 3 from 5. Werder Bremen come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Werder Bremen won 4 of their last 10 games at home. TSG Hoffenheim won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Werder Bremen score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.7. TSG Hoffenheim score 1.6 and let in 2.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Werder Bremen games and 16 of TSG Hoffenheim games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Werder Bremen won 0 and TSG Hoffenheim won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended TSG Hoffenheim 1, Werder Bremen 0.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Bremenrecent form+3%
Hoffenheimrecent form-6%

Bremen form D D W D WHoffenheim form D L L L LHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Werder Bremen vs TSG Hoffenheim: TSG Hoffenheim shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Werder Bremen host TSG Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga on Sat 31 Oct, 14:30 at Weserstadion. Our prediction for Werder Bremen vs TSG Hoffenheim is TSG Hoffenheim to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19.

Werder Bremen form

Werder Bremen have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, D, W, newest first.

TSG Hoffenheim form

TSG Hoffenheim have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 43 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Werder Bremen won 0, TSG Hoffenheim won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished TSG Hoffenheim 1, Werder Bremen 0.

Our call

We expect Werder Bremen to score about 1.6 goals and TSG Hoffenheim about 1.7. That points to TSG Hoffenheim to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19. Our bold bet is TSG Hoffenheim to win and Over 2.5 at 3.57.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Bremen	Hoffenheim
Games played	20	20
Wins	6	6
Draws	4	4
Losses	10	10
Goals scored	27	31
Goals conceded	34	43
Scored per game	1.4	1.6
Conceded per game	1.7	2.1
Home record	4W 1D 5L	3W 2D 5L
Away record	2W 3D 5L	3W 2D 5L
Clean sheets	10%	5%
Both teams scored	65%	75%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	80%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Werder Bremen to win	35%	2.82	2.75	-2.5%
A Draw	23%	4.33	3.70	-14.5%
TSG Hoffenheim to win	41%	2.43	2.10	-13.7%
Over 3.5 goals	45%	2.22	2.00	-10.0%
Under 3.5 goals	51%	1.96	1.74	-11.3%
Werder Bremen +0.5	52%	1.91	1.63	-14.8%
TSG Hoffenheim -0.5	44%	2.30	2.05	-10.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	85%	1.18
Over 2.5 goals	65%	1.55
Over 3.5 goals	42%	2.35
Both teams to score	66%	1.51
Werder Bremen or Draw	60%	1.67
TSG Hoffenheim or Draw	64%	1.56
Werder Bremen to win and Over 2.5	26%	3.87
TSG Hoffenheim to win and Over 2.5	29%	3.41
Werder Bremen clean sheet	18%	5.56
TSG Hoffenheim clean sheet	20%	4.99

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.5%

1-28.5%

2-18.0%

2-26.9%

0-15.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Werder Bremen vs TSG Hoffenheim?

Our prediction for Werder Bremen vs TSG Hoffenheim is TSG Hoffenheim to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19.

What is the score prediction for Werder Bremen vs TSG Hoffenheim?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect Werder Bremen to score 1.6 goals and TSG Hoffenheim 1.7.

Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs TSG Hoffenheim?

Both teams to score has a 66% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Werder Bremen last 20 games and 15 of TSG Hoffenheim last 20.

How are Werder Bremen playing?

How are TSG Hoffenheim playing?

What happened when Werder Bremen and TSG Hoffenheim last met?

It ended TSG Hoffenheim 1, Werder Bremen 0. In the last 2 meetings Werder Bremen won 0 and TSG Hoffenheim won 2.

What is the best bet for Werder Bremen vs TSG Hoffenheim?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.19, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Bremen against Hoffenheim. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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