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Predictions › United Kingdom › West Bromwich Albion vs Birmingham City
ChampionshipSat 10 Oct, 12:30 United Kingdom time

West Bromwich Albion vs Birmingham City prediction

The Hawthorns

West Bromwich AlbionHome
1.41 : 1.14
expected goals
Birmingham CityAway
42%West Brom
28%Draw
30%Birmingham
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1/3

Quick answer

Our prediction for West Bromwich Albion vs Birmingham City is West Bromwich Albion to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/3.

Prediction
West Bromwich Albion to win
Chance
42%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
West Bromwich Albion 1.4, Birmingham City 1.1
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1/3
Both teams to score
52%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
75% chanceFair price 1/31 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 13/21 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives West Bromwich Albion 42%, the draw 28% and Birmingham City 30%. The bookmakers agree and make West Bromwich Albion the favourite at 5/4.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    West Bromwich Albion took 8 points from their last 5 games and Birmingham City took 6 from 5. West Bromwich Albion come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    West Bromwich Albion won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Birmingham City won 3 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    West Bromwich Albion score 1.4 goals a game and let in 0.8. Birmingham City score 1.3 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of West Bromwich Albion games and 10 of Birmingham City games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, West Bromwich Albion won 0 and Birmingham City won 0 with 2 draws. The last one ended Birmingham City 0, West Bromwich Albion 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • West Bromrecent form+1%
West Brom form L D W W DBirmingham form D W L D DHome edge in this league 20% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

West Bromwich Albion vs Birmingham City: West Bromwich Albion shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

West Bromwich Albion host Birmingham City in the Championship on Sat 10 Oct, 12:30 at The Hawthorns. Our prediction for West Bromwich Albion vs Birmingham City is West Bromwich Albion to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/3.

West Bromwich Albion form

West Bromwich Albion have 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 17 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 6 draws and 0 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, W, D, newest first.

Birmingham City form

Birmingham City have 7 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, D, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. West Bromwich Albion won 0, Birmingham City won 0 and 2 games ended level. Last time out it finished Birmingham City 0, West Bromwich Albion 0.

Our call

We expect West Bromwich Albion to score about 1.4 goals and Birmingham City about 1.1. That points to West Bromwich Albion to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/3. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 13/2.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

West BromBirmingham
Games played2020
Wins97
Draws78
Losses45
Goals scored2925
Goals conceded1726
Scored per game1.41.3
Conceded per game0.81.3
Home record4W 6D 0L4W 5D 2L
Away record5W 1D 4L3W 3D 3L
Clean sheets45%20%
Both teams scored50%70%
Over 2.5 goals45%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
West Bromwich Albion to win40%6/45/4-9.1%
A Draw27%11/45/2-6.6%
Birmingham City to win29%5/22/1-15.4%
Over 2.5 goals48%11/104/5-15.7%
Under 2.5 goals46%6/510/11-10.0%
West Bromwich Albion -0.539%6/411/10-15.3%
Birmingham City +0.554%5/64/7-14.6%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals73%4/11
Over 2.5 goals47%11/10
Over 3.5 goals25%3/1
Both teams to score52%10/11
West Bromwich Albion or Draw70%2/5
Birmingham City or Draw58%8/11
West Bromwich Albion to win and Over 2.524%3/1
Birmingham City to win and Over 2.516%5/1
West Bromwich Albion clean sheet32%85/40
Birmingham City clean sheet24%3/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.3%
1-010.3%
2-18.9%
0-08.6%
0-18.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win West Bromwich Albion vs Birmingham City?

Our prediction for West Bromwich Albion vs Birmingham City is West Bromwich Albion to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/3.

What is the score prediction for West Bromwich Albion vs Birmingham City?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect West Bromwich Albion to score 1.4 goals and Birmingham City 1.1.

Will both teams score in West Bromwich Albion vs Birmingham City?

Both teams to score has a 52% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of West Bromwich Albion last 20 games and 14 of Birmingham City last 20.

How are West Bromwich Albion playing?

West Bromwich Albion have 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 17 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 6 draws and 0 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, W, D, newest first.

How are Birmingham City playing?

Birmingham City have 7 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, D, D, newest first.

What happened when West Bromwich Albion and Birmingham City last met?

It ended Birmingham City 0, West Bromwich Albion 0. In the last 2 meetings West Bromwich Albion won 0 and Birmingham City won 0.

What is the best bet for West Bromwich Albion vs Birmingham City?

Under 3.5 goals at 1/3, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in West Brom against Birmingham. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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