Quick answer
Our prediction for Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs New Mexico State Aggies is New Mexico State Aggies to win, with a 52% chance, but it is a close call. We project Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 25.7 and New Mexico State Aggies 29.0. Our best bet is New Mexico St +7.5 at -304.
- Prediction
- New Mexico State Aggies to win
- Chance
- 52%
- Projected score
- Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 26, New Mexico State Aggies 29
- Projected total
- 54.7 points
- Best bet
- New Mexico St +7.5 at -304
Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.
The eagle's three picks
✓ Eagle safe pick
New Mexico St +7.5
75% chanceFair price -3042 units
Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.
Why we think this
- 1
What our numbers sayThe model gives New Mexico State Aggies 52% and Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 48%. The bookmakers agree and make New Mexico State Aggies the favourite at -130.
- 2
Recent formNew Mexico State Aggies won 1 of their last 5 and Western Kentucky Hilltoppers won 2 of their last 5. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers come in with the better run.
- 3
Home and awayNew Mexico State Aggies won 2 of their last 6 games at home. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers won 4 of their last 9 on the road.
- 4
ScoringNew Mexico State Aggies score 23.1 points a game and let in 30.9. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers score 25.2 and let in 27.6. Their recent games average 54.1 and 52.8 points in total, and the market line is 54.5.
- 5
Head to headIn the last 1 meeting, New Mexico State Aggies won 0 and Western Kentucky Hilltoppers won 1. The last one ended Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 35, New Mexico State Aggies 16.
- 6
The safest betNew Mexico St +7.5 has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.
Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.
What moved our number
Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.- New Mexico Strest between games-5%
- Western KYrest between games-5%
Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.
Match previewWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers vs New Mexico State Aggies: New Mexico State Aggies shade it
By the EagleEyeOdds desk
The big picture
New Mexico State Aggies host Western Kentucky Hilltoppers in the College Football on Thu 1 Oct, 20:00 at Aggie Memorial Stadium. Our prediction for Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs New Mexico State Aggies is New Mexico State Aggies to win, with a 52% chance, but it is a close call. We project Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 25.7 and New Mexico State Aggies 29.0. Our best bet is New Mexico St +7.5 at -304.
New Mexico State Aggies form
New Mexico State Aggies have 3 wins and 11 losses in their last 14 games, with 324 points scored and 433 conceded. At home they have 2 wins and 4 losses from 6. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, L, newest first.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers form
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers have 8 wins and 6 losses in their last 14 games, with 353 points scored and 386 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, W, newest first.
Head to head
These two have met 1 time in our records. New Mexico State Aggies won 0, Western Kentucky Hilltoppers won 1. Last time out it finished Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 35, New Mexico State Aggies 16.
Our call
We expect Western Kentucky Hilltoppers to score about 25.7 points and New Mexico State Aggies about 29.0. That points to New Mexico State Aggies to win. Our safest bet is New Mexico St +7.5 at -304.
Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.
Team records
Last 14 games in all competitions.
Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.
Price check against Draft Kings
Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.
Spread and total at every line
Note: A spread gives one team a head start. New Mexico St +3.5 wins if New Mexico St win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.
Questions people ask
Who will win Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs New Mexico State Aggies?
Our prediction for Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs New Mexico State Aggies is New Mexico State Aggies to win, with a 52% chance, but it is a close call. We project Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 25.7 and New Mexico State Aggies 29.0. Our best bet is New Mexico St +7.5 at -304.
What is the projected score for Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs New Mexico State Aggies?
We project Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 25.7 and New Mexico State Aggies 29.0, about 54.7 points in total.
How are New Mexico State Aggies playing?
New Mexico State Aggies have 3 wins and 11 losses in their last 14 games, with 324 points scored and 433 conceded. At home they have 2 wins and 4 losses from 6. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, L, newest first.
How are Western Kentucky Hilltoppers playing?
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers have 8 wins and 6 losses in their last 14 games, with 353 points scored and 386 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, W, newest first.
What happened when New Mexico State Aggies and Western Kentucky Hilltoppers last met?
It ended Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 35, New Mexico State Aggies 16. In the last 1 meeting New Mexico State Aggies won 0 and Western Kentucky Hilltoppers won 1.
What is the best bet for Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs New Mexico State Aggies?
New Mexico St +7.5 at -304, with a 75% chance.
Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.
Important, please read before you bet
- These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in New Mexico St against Western KY. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
- We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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- Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
- No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
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