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Predictions › Netherlands › Willem II vs PEC Zwolle
EredivisieFri 6 Nov, 19:00 Netherlands time

Willem II vs PEC Zwolle prediction

Koning Willem II Stadion

Willem IIHome
1.60 : 2.07
expected goals
PEC ZwolleAway
30%Willem II
22%Draw
48%PEC Zwolle
Eagle safe pickOver 2.5 goals
1.38

Quick answer

Our prediction for Willem II vs PEC Zwolle is PEC Zwolle to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.38.

Prediction
PEC Zwolle to win
Chance
48%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Willem II 1.6, PEC Zwolle 2.1
Best bet
Over 2.5 goals at 1.38
Both teams to score
70%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 2.5 goals
73% chanceFair price 1.381 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

PEC Zwolle to win and Over 2.5
38% chanceFair price 2.661 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Willem II 30%, the draw 22% and PEC Zwolle 48%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Willem II took 0 points from their last 5 games and PEC Zwolle took 4 from 5. PEC Zwolle come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Willem II won 0 of their last 5 games at home. PEC Zwolle won 1 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Willem II score 1.0 goals a game and let in 3.2. PEC Zwolle score 1.1 and let in 2.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Willem II games and 11 of PEC Zwolle games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 2.5 goals has a 73% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Willem IIrecent form-6%
  • PEC Zwollerecent form-3%
Willem II form D L L L LPEC Zwolle form D W L L LHome edge in this league 16% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Willem II vs PEC Zwolle: PEC Zwolle are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Willem II host PEC Zwolle in the Eredivisie on Fri 6 Nov, 19:00 at Koning Willem II Stadion. Our prediction for Willem II vs PEC Zwolle is PEC Zwolle to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.38.

Willem II form

Willem II have 0 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses in their last 10 games, with 10 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 5. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

PEC Zwolle form

PEC Zwolle have 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 44 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, L, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Willem II to score about 1.6 goals and PEC Zwolle about 2.1. That points to PEC Zwolle to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.38. Our bold bet is PEC Zwolle to win and Over 2.5 at 2.66.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Willem IIPEC Zwolle
Games played1020
Wins04
Draws26
Losses810
Goals scored1021
Goals conceded3244
Scored per game1.01.1
Conceded per game3.22.2
Home record0W 1D 4L3W 3D 5L
Away record0W 1D 4L1W 3D 5L
Clean sheets0%15%
Both teams scored80%55%
Over 2.5 goals80%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals89%1.13
Over 2.5 goals71%1.41
Over 3.5 goals50%2.00
Both teams to score70%1.42
Willem II or Draw52%1.94
PEC Zwolle or Draw70%1.42
Willem II to win and Over 2.523%4.41
PEC Zwolle to win and Over 2.538%2.63
Willem II clean sheet13%7.93
PEC Zwolle clean sheet20%4.95

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-18.9%
1-28.7%
2-27.0%
2-16.7%
1-36.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Willem II vs PEC Zwolle?

Our prediction for Willem II vs PEC Zwolle is PEC Zwolle to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.38.

What is the score prediction for Willem II vs PEC Zwolle?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-2. We expect Willem II to score 1.6 goals and PEC Zwolle 2.1.

Will both teams score in Willem II vs PEC Zwolle?

Both teams to score has a 70% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Willem II last 10 games and 11 of PEC Zwolle last 20.

How are Willem II playing?

Willem II have 0 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses in their last 10 games, with 10 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 5. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

How are PEC Zwolle playing?

PEC Zwolle have 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 44 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, L, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for Willem II vs PEC Zwolle?

Over 2.5 goals at 1.38, with a 73% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Willem II against PEC Zwolle. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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