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Predictions › United States › Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians
MLBSat 3 Oct, 13:00 United States time

Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians prediction

Progressive Field

Chicago White SoxAway
3.4 : 4.0
projected runs
Cleveland GuardiansHome
46%White Sox
54%Guardians
Eagle safe pickWhite Sox +3.5
-305

Quick answer

Our prediction for Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians is Cleveland Guardians to win, with a 54% chance, but it is a close call. We project Chicago White Sox 3.4 and Cleveland Guardians 4.0. Our best bet is White Sox +3.5 at -305.

Prediction
Cleveland Guardians to win
Chance
54%
Projected score
Chicago White Sox 3, Cleveland Guardians 4
Projected total
7.3 runs
Best bet
White Sox +3.5 at -305

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

White Sox +3.5
75% chanceFair price -3052 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Cleveland Guardians 54% and Chicago White Sox 46%. The bookmakers agree and make Cleveland Guardians the favourite at -156.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Cleveland Guardians won 3 of their last 5 and Chicago White Sox won 4 of their last 5. Chicago White Sox come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Cleveland Guardians won 6 of their last 8 games at home. Chicago White Sox won 6 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Cleveland Guardians score 5.0 runs a game and let in 4.0. Chicago White Sox score 5.3 and let in 4.3. Their recent games average 9.1 and 9.6 runs in total, and the market line is 7.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 5 meetings, Cleveland Guardians won 2 and Chicago White Sox won 3. The last one ended Cleveland Guardians 6, Chicago White Sox 3.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    White Sox +3.5 has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • White Soxrest between games-5%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians: Cleveland Guardians shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Cleveland Guardians host Chicago White Sox in the MLB on Sat 3 Oct, 13:00 at Progressive Field. Our prediction for Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians is Cleveland Guardians to win, with a 54% chance, but it is a close call. We project Chicago White Sox 3.4 and Cleveland Guardians 4.0. Our best bet is White Sox +3.5 at -305.

Cleveland Guardians form

Cleveland Guardians have 13 wins and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 101 runs scored and 81 conceded. At home they have 6 wins and 2 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Chicago White Sox form

Chicago White Sox have 11 wins and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 106 runs scored and 86 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 5 times in our records. Cleveland Guardians won 2, Chicago White Sox won 3. Last time out it finished Cleveland Guardians 6, Chicago White Sox 3.

Our call

We expect Chicago White Sox to score about 3.4 runs and Cleveland Guardians about 4.0. That points to Cleveland Guardians to win. Our safest bet is White Sox +3.5 at -305.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

GuardiansWhite Sox
Games played2020
Wins1311
Losses79
Runs scored101106
Runs conceded8186
Scored per game5.05.3
Conceded per game4.04.3
Home record6W 2L5W 4L
Away record7W 5L6W 5L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Guardians to win54%-120-156-10.6%
White Sox to win40%+152+129-9.3%
Guardians -1.539%+154+141-5.1%
White Sox +1.555%-121-171-13.3%
Over 7 runs50%-101-114-5.6%
Under 7 runs44%+128-106-14.9%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Guardians spreadCoversFair
Guardians -2.533%+203
Guardians -1.542%+138
Guardians -0.551%-106
Guardians +0.561%-155
Guardians +1.570%-228
Total runsOverUnder
5.566%34%
6.558%42%
7.549%51%
8.540%60%
9.531%69%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Guardians +3.5 wins if Guardians win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
MLB

White Sox Sweep Astros to Clinch First Playoff Series Win Since 2005

The Chicago White Sox swept the Houston Astros with a 7-3 win on Wednesday, securing their first postseason series victory in nearly two decades.

5 hours ago
MLB

Guardians Clinch AL Central Title and First Round Playoff Bye

The Cleveland Guardians clinched the AL Central title and a first round playoff bye with an 11-5 victory over the Kansas City Royals on Saturday.

27 Sept 2026
MLB

Phillies Claim Pitcher Jose Urquidy From White Sox to Fill Rotation Gap

The Philadelphia Phillies have claimed right handed pitcher Jose Urquidy off waivers to help fill the void left by injured All Star Jesus Luzardo.

18 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians?

Our prediction for Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians is Cleveland Guardians to win, with a 54% chance, but it is a close call. We project Chicago White Sox 3.4 and Cleveland Guardians 4.0. Our best bet is White Sox +3.5 at -305.

What is the projected score for Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians?

We project Chicago White Sox 3.4 and Cleveland Guardians 4.0, about 7.3 runs in total.

How are Cleveland Guardians playing?

Cleveland Guardians have 13 wins and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 101 runs scored and 81 conceded. At home they have 6 wins and 2 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, L, newest first.

How are Chicago White Sox playing?

Chicago White Sox have 11 wins and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 106 runs scored and 86 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, W, newest first.

What happened when Cleveland Guardians and Chicago White Sox last met?

It ended Cleveland Guardians 6, Chicago White Sox 3. In the last 5 meetings Cleveland Guardians won 2 and Chicago White Sox won 3.

What is the best bet for Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians?

White Sox +3.5 at -305, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Guardians against White Sox. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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