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Predictions › United States › Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays
MLBMon 12 Oct, 20:00 United States time

Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays prediction

Tropicana Field

Cleveland GuardiansAway
3.3 : 4.1
projected runs
Tampa Bay RaysHome
45%Guardians
55%Rays
Eagle safe pickGuardians +3.5
-295

Quick answer

Our prediction for Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays is Tampa Bay Rays to win, with a 55% chance, but it is a close call. We project Cleveland Guardians 3.3 and Tampa Bay Rays 4.1. Our best bet is Guardians +3.5 at -295.

Prediction
Tampa Bay Rays to win
Chance
55%
Projected score
Cleveland Guardians 3, Tampa Bay Rays 4
Projected total
7.3 runs
Best bet
Guardians +3.5 at -295

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Guardians +3.5
75% chanceFair price -2951 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Rays -1.5
41% chancePrice +1411 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Tampa Bay Rays 55% and Cleveland Guardians 45%. The bookmakers agree and make Tampa Bay Rays the favourite at -171.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Tampa Bay Rays won 4 of their last 5 and Cleveland Guardians won 3 of their last 5. Tampa Bay Rays come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Tampa Bay Rays won 10 of their last 11 games at home. Cleveland Guardians won 8 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Tampa Bay Rays score 4.3 runs a game and let in 2.6. Cleveland Guardians score 5.2 and let in 3.4. Their recent games average 6.8 and 8.6 runs in total, and the market line is 7.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 5 meetings, Tampa Bay Rays won 4 and Cleveland Guardians won 1. The last one ended Tampa Bay Rays 1, Cleveland Guardians 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Guardians +3.5 has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Guardiansrest between games-5%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays: Tampa Bay Rays shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Tampa Bay Rays host Cleveland Guardians in the MLB on Mon 12 Oct, 20:00 at Tropicana Field. Our prediction for Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays is Tampa Bay Rays to win, with a 55% chance, but it is a close call. We project Cleveland Guardians 3.3 and Tampa Bay Rays 4.1. Our best bet is Guardians +3.5 at -295.

Tampa Bay Rays form

Tampa Bay Rays have 14 wins and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 85 runs scored and 52 conceded. At home they have 10 wins and 1 loss from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, W, newest first.

Cleveland Guardians form

Cleveland Guardians have 14 wins and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 103 runs scored and 68 conceded. Away from home they have 8 wins and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 5 times in our records. Tampa Bay Rays won 4, Cleveland Guardians won 1. Last time out it finished Tampa Bay Rays 1, Cleveland Guardians 0.

Our call

We expect Cleveland Guardians to score about 3.3 runs and Tampa Bay Rays about 4.1. That points to Tampa Bay Rays to win. Our safest bet is Guardians +3.5 at -295. Our bold bet is Rays -1.5 at +141.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

RaysGuardians
Games played2020
Wins1414
Losses66
Runs scored85103
Runs conceded5268
Scored per game4.35.2
Conceded per game2.63.4
Home record10W 1L6W 3L
Away record4W 5L8W 3L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Rays to win55%-122-171-12.8%
Guardians to win39%+159+141-7.1%
Rays -1.541%+142+141-0.4%
Guardians +1.552%-109-171-17.2%
Over 7 runs49%+103+102-0.4%
Under 7 runs44%+126-122-19.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Rays spreadCoversFair
Rays -2.534%+191
Rays -1.543%+130
Rays -0.553%-112
Rays +0.562%-165
Rays +1.571%-243
Total runsOverUnder
5.566%34%
6.557%43%
7.548%52%
8.539%61%
9.531%69%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Rays +3.5 wins if Rays win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
MLB

Guardians Mock White Sox After Clinching ALDS in Game 5

Cleveland overcame a 2-0 deficit to beat the White Sox in Game 5 and wasted no time trolling their rivals.

1 hour ago
MLB

Cleveland Hosts Chicago In Decisive ALDS Game 5

The Guardians and White Sox settle their ALDS battle in Game 5. Here is what to expect before first pitch.

18 hours ago
MLB

Guardians Force Game 5 With Huge Rally Against White Sox

Jose Ramirez homered and drove in three runs as the Cleveland Guardians beat the Chicago White Sox 9-5 to force a decisive Game 5.

9 Oct 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays?

Our prediction for Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays is Tampa Bay Rays to win, with a 55% chance, but it is a close call. We project Cleveland Guardians 3.3 and Tampa Bay Rays 4.1. Our best bet is Guardians +3.5 at -295.

What is the projected score for Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays?

We project Cleveland Guardians 3.3 and Tampa Bay Rays 4.1, about 7.3 runs in total.

How are Tampa Bay Rays playing?

Tampa Bay Rays have 14 wins and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 85 runs scored and 52 conceded. At home they have 10 wins and 1 loss from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, W, newest first.

How are Cleveland Guardians playing?

Cleveland Guardians have 14 wins and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 103 runs scored and 68 conceded. Away from home they have 8 wins and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians last met?

It ended Tampa Bay Rays 1, Cleveland Guardians 0. In the last 5 meetings Tampa Bay Rays won 4 and Cleveland Guardians won 1.

What is the best bet for Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays?

Guardians +3.5 at -295, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Rays against Guardians. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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