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Predictions › United States › Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians
MLBSat 17 Oct, 20:00 United States time

Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians prediction

Progressive Field

Tampa Bay RaysAway
4.2 : 3.9
projected runs
Cleveland GuardiansHome
55%Rays
45%Guardians
Eagle safe pickUnder 10.5 runs
-279

Quick answer

Our prediction for Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians is Tampa Bay Rays to win, with a 55% chance, but it is a close call. We project Tampa Bay Rays 4.2 and Cleveland Guardians 3.9. Our best bet is Under 10.5 runs at -279.

Prediction
Tampa Bay Rays to win
Chance
55%
Projected score
Tampa Bay Rays 4, Cleveland Guardians 4
Projected total
8.1 runs
Best bet
Under 10.5 runs at -279

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 10.5 runs
74% chanceFair price -2791 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Guardians to win
45% chanceFair price +1241 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Cleveland Guardians 45% and Tampa Bay Rays 55%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Cleveland Guardians won 3 of their last 5 and Tampa Bay Rays won 4 of their last 5. Tampa Bay Rays come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Cleveland Guardians won 6 of their last 9 games at home. Tampa Bay Rays won 4 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Cleveland Guardians score 5.2 runs a game and let in 3.4. Tampa Bay Rays score 4.3 and let in 2.6. Their recent games average 8.6 and 6.8 runs in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 5 meetings, Cleveland Guardians won 1 and Tampa Bay Rays won 4. The last one ended Tampa Bay Rays 1, Cleveland Guardians 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 10.5 runs has a 74% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Guardiansrest between games-5%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians: Tampa Bay Rays shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Cleveland Guardians host Tampa Bay Rays in the MLB on Sat 17 Oct, 20:00 at Progressive Field. Our prediction for Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians is Tampa Bay Rays to win, with a 55% chance, but it is a close call. We project Tampa Bay Rays 4.2 and Cleveland Guardians 3.9. Our best bet is Under 10.5 runs at -279.

Cleveland Guardians form

Cleveland Guardians have 14 wins and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 103 runs scored and 68 conceded. At home they have 6 wins and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, L, newest first.

Tampa Bay Rays form

Tampa Bay Rays have 14 wins and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 85 runs scored and 52 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 5 times in our records. Cleveland Guardians won 1, Tampa Bay Rays won 4. Last time out it finished Tampa Bay Rays 1, Cleveland Guardians 0.

Our call

We expect Tampa Bay Rays to score about 4.2 runs and Cleveland Guardians about 3.9. That points to Tampa Bay Rays to win. Our safest bet is Under 10.5 runs at -279. Our bold bet is Guardians to win at +124.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

GuardiansRays
Games played2020
Wins1414
Losses66
Runs scored10385
Runs conceded6852
Scored per game5.24.3
Conceded per game3.42.6
Home record6W 3L10W 1L
Away record8W 3L4W 5L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Guardians spreadCoversFair
Guardians -1.534%+195
Guardians -0.543%+133
Guardians +0.552%-110
Guardians +1.562%-161
Guardians +2.570%-238
Total runsOverUnder
6.564%36%
7.555%45%
8.546%54%
9.537%63%
10.529%71%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Guardians +3.5 wins if Guardians win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
MLB

Guardians Mock White Sox After Clinching ALDS in Game 5

Cleveland overcame a 2-0 deficit to beat the White Sox in Game 5 and wasted no time trolling their rivals.

1 hour ago
MLB

Cleveland Hosts Chicago In Decisive ALDS Game 5

The Guardians and White Sox settle their ALDS battle in Game 5. Here is what to expect before first pitch.

18 hours ago
MLB

Guardians Force Game 5 With Huge Rally Against White Sox

Jose Ramirez homered and drove in three runs as the Cleveland Guardians beat the Chicago White Sox 9-5 to force a decisive Game 5.

9 Oct 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians?

Our prediction for Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians is Tampa Bay Rays to win, with a 55% chance, but it is a close call. We project Tampa Bay Rays 4.2 and Cleveland Guardians 3.9. Our best bet is Under 10.5 runs at -279.

What is the projected score for Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians?

We project Tampa Bay Rays 4.2 and Cleveland Guardians 3.9, about 8.1 runs in total.

How are Cleveland Guardians playing?

Cleveland Guardians have 14 wins and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 103 runs scored and 68 conceded. At home they have 6 wins and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, L, newest first.

How are Tampa Bay Rays playing?

Tampa Bay Rays have 14 wins and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 85 runs scored and 52 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, W, newest first.

What happened when Cleveland Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays last met?

It ended Tampa Bay Rays 1, Cleveland Guardians 0. In the last 5 meetings Cleveland Guardians won 1 and Tampa Bay Rays won 4.

What is the best bet for Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians?

Under 10.5 runs at -279, with a 74% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Guardians against Rays. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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