Premier League2 hours ago2 minute read

Can an Elite Manager Fix Manchester United?

Manchester United are facing another manager change as Michael Carrick struggles. We examine what a top coach is actually worth.

The EagleEyeOdds deskWritten from the match data, checked against our model before it goes out

The cycle of sacking managers

Autumn has arrived, and Manchester United find themselves in a very familiar position. Michael Carrick appears set to become the latest manager to lose his job. United are currently clear of the relegation zone on goal differential alone. Even with a win over AS Roma in the Champions League, history suggests their European comeback will not save the manager.

This is now the 14th season since Manchester United last won the Premier League. The cycle of changing coaches has been steady for years. Ruben Amorim lost his job last January. Erik ten Hag was fired two years ago right before Halloween. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer was booted shortly before Thanksgiving, while Jose Mourinho was let go just before Christmas. Whoever takes over from Carrick will be the ninth coach trying to meet expectations at one of the richest teams on the planet.

The actual impact of an elite coach

Does a manager truly change a team's fortunes? Ian Graham, the former director of research at Liverpool, wrote in his book How to Win the Premier League that a top manager brings about the same value as a good player. That matches salaries, as top managers get paid similar wages to top players.

A 2025 study from the Sloan Sports Analytics conference rated coaches across Europe's Big Five top leagues from 2017 through 2024. The study measured how much a team outperformed expectations based on roster talent. Jurgen Klopp and Pep Guardiola topped the list with a big gap over the rest. Klopp turned both Borussia Dortmund and Liverpool into top teams despite not having the richest clubs. Dortmund gave him energetic stars like Robert Lewandowski, Mats Hummels, Marco Reus, and Ilkay Gundogan. Liverpool's front office convinced him to sign Mohamed Salah instead of Julian Brandt. But Manchester United have been described as an abject disaster, proving that even a great manager needs structure to win.

What it means for the next game

Manchester United vs Aston Villa (Premier League, Sun, 08 Nov): Manchester United win 43%, draw 25%, Aston Villa win 32%; expected goals 1.69 to 1.42. Our safest pick: Over 1.5 goals.