EagleEyeOdds eagleEagleEyeOddsToday's picks
PredictionsBest bets by countryKenyaNigeriaGhanaSouth AfricaUnited KingdomUnited StatesIndiaTanzaniaUgandaZambiaCameroonIvory CoastAll 54 countriesNewsOur recordHow Eagle 2.0 worksResponsible gambling
Predictions › United Kingdom › Manchester United vs Aston Villa
Premier LeagueSun 8 Nov, 16:30 United Kingdom time

Manchester United vs Aston Villa prediction

Old Trafford

Manchester UnitedHome
1.64 : 1.43
expected goals
Aston VillaAway
42%Man Utd
25%Draw
33%Aston Villa
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
2/9

Quick answer

Our prediction for Manchester United vs Aston Villa is Manchester United to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/9.

Prediction
Manchester United to win
Chance
42%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Manchester United 1.6, Aston Villa 1.4
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 2/9
Both teams to score
62%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
82% chanceFair price 2/92 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Manchester United to win and Over 2.5
28% chanceFair price 13/51 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Manchester United 42%, the draw 25% and Aston Villa 33%. The bookmakers agree and make Manchester United the favourite at 6/5.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Manchester United took 2 points from their last 5 games and Aston Villa took 12 from 5. Aston Villa come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Manchester United won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Aston Villa won 6 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Manchester United score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.6. Aston Villa score 2.0 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Manchester United games and 16 of Aston Villa games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Manchester United won 1 and Aston Villa won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Manchester United 3, Aston Villa 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Man Utdrecent form-3%
  • Aston Villarecent form+6%
  • Aston Villarest between games-5%
  • Man Utdteam news-1%
Man Utd form D L D L DAston Villa form D W W W WHome edge in this league 23% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Manchester United vs Aston Villa: Manchester United shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Manchester United host Aston Villa in the Premier League on Sun 8 Nov, 16:30 at Old Trafford. Our prediction for Manchester United vs Aston Villa is Manchester United to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/9.

Manchester United form

Manchester United have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, L, D, newest first.

Aston Villa form

Aston Villa have 11 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Manchester United won 1, Aston Villa won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Manchester United 3, Aston Villa 1.

Our call

We expect Manchester United to score about 1.6 goals and Aston Villa about 1.4. That points to Manchester United to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/9. Our bold bet is Manchester United to win and Over 2.5 at 13/5.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Man UtdAston Villa
Games played2020
Wins711
Draws63
Losses76
Goals scored3240
Goals conceded3127
Scored per game1.62.0
Conceded per game1.61.4
Home record5W 1D 4L5W 1D 3L
Away record2W 5D 3L6W 2D 3L
Clean sheets20%25%
Both teams scored60%55%
Over 2.5 goals60%80%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Manchester United to win41%7/56/5-9.4%
A Draw25%3/113/5-11.1%
Aston Villa to win32%85/4015/8-6.9%
Over 2.5 goals54%5/64/7-15.9%
Under 2.5 goals40%6/45/4-7.9%
Manchester United -0.542%11/821/20-13.2%
Aston Villa +0.551%10/118/13-16.3%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals82%2/9
Over 2.5 goals59%4/6
Over 3.5 goals37%7/4
Both teams to score62%8/13
Manchester United or Draw67%1/2
Aston Villa or Draw58%8/11
Manchester United to win and Over 2.529%5/2
Aston Villa to win and Over 2.522%7/2
Manchester United clean sheet24%10/3
Aston Villa clean sheet19%4/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.5%
2-18.9%
1-27.8%
1-06.9%
2-26.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news
Premier League

Bruno Fernandes To Keep Manchester United Captaincy Says Michael Carrick

Michael Carrick confirms Bruno Fernandes remains Manchester United captain despite recent tactical dispute and benching.

5 hours ago
Premier League

Gary Neville Demands Glazers Sell Manchester United Now

Gary Neville urges the Glazers to sell Manchester United completely following poor results and rising debt.

8 hours ago
Premier League

Everton Target Rashford Loan Deal as Top European Clubs Plan January Moves

Everton are looking at a January loan move for Manchester United forward Marcus Rashford while top clubs prepare winter transfer bids.

11 hours ago

Questions people ask

Who will win Manchester United vs Aston Villa?

Our prediction for Manchester United vs Aston Villa is Manchester United to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/9.

What is the score prediction for Manchester United vs Aston Villa?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect Manchester United to score 1.6 goals and Aston Villa 1.4.

Will both teams score in Manchester United vs Aston Villa?

Both teams to score has a 62% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Manchester United last 20 games and 11 of Aston Villa last 20.

How are Manchester United playing?

Manchester United have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, L, D, newest first.

How are Aston Villa playing?

Aston Villa have 11 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Manchester United and Aston Villa last met?

It ended Manchester United 3, Aston Villa 1. In the last 2 meetings Manchester United won 1 and Aston Villa won 1.

What is the best bet for Manchester United vs Aston Villa?

Over 1.5 goals at 2/9, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Man Utd against Aston Villa. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
  • 18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
  • No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
  • Betting can harm you. If it stops being fun, if you chase losses, or if you hide it from people close to you, stop and get help. Free and private support is available from BeGambleAware, GamCare and Gamblers Anonymous. Read our responsible gambling page for tools that block betting sites.

Full terms are on our disclaimer and terms pages.

Note: Never stake money you need for rent, food, bills or anyone who depends on you.