NBA8 Nov 20262 minute read

Jaylen Brown On Off Stats Tell Complicated Story

Jaylen Brown faces his former team as analysts look at the gap between his box score numbers and on off statistics.

The EagleEyeOdds deskWritten from the match data, checked against our model before it goes out

Blockbuster Trade and Data Debates

Jaylen Brown will play against the Boston Celtics on Tuesday at 8 p.m. ET for the first time since his summer trade. The move came a year after the Dallas Mavericks traded Luka Doncic. Brown was a five time All Star, a former Finals MVP, and placed sixth in the 2026 regular season MVP voting with a career high 28.7 points per game.

Data presents a more complicated picture. The Celtics had a better net rating with Brown off the floor in seven of his ten seasons in Boston, including the last four. That data comes from Cleaning the Glass, which strips out garbage time.

How Analysts Use On Off Data

Front offices evaluate endless data points, from shot quality to footspeed, to find players who help outscore opponents. Sometimes individual stats do not match on off splits. Paolo Banchero of the Orlando Magic has higher career averages in points, rebounds, and assists than teammate Franz Wagner. However, Banchero has had a negative or neutral on off split every season, while Wagner has posted strong positive splits. Defense drives much of that gap, as the Magic defensive rating is 3.8 points higher with Banchero on the court and 5.4 points lower with Wagner.

Analysts urge patience with early numbers. An analyst for an Eastern Conference team stated that 10,000 possessions, or about two seasons for a starter, is the minimum sample size needed. For instance, Amen Thompson was 47.3 points per 100 possessions worse with the Houston Rockets through nine games in the 2026-27 season, but experts recognize that sample size is far too small.

Adjusting Numbers for True Value

Raw on off data can be misleading because of sample bias and lineup contexts. Western Conference executives and analysts use regularized adjusted plus minus, known as RAPM, to refine raw numbers. Taylor Snarr, a former analyst for the Utah Jazz and creator of estimated plus minus, noted that RAPM accounts for teammates, opponents, home court advantage, and opponent shooting percentages.

Lineup context can distort raw numbers without adjustments. Two years ago, Christian Braun had the third best on off swing among rotation players, but he shared most of his minutes with Nikola Jokic, who ranked first. Professional models blend adjusted on off data with box score statistics to measure a player's actual impact.

What it means for the next game

Philadelphia 76ers at Chicago Bulls (NBA, Sun, 08 Nov): Chicago Bulls win 24%, Philadelphia 76ers win 76%; projected score Chicago Bulls 114, Philadelphia 76ers 122. Our safest pick: 76ers to win.

Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks (NBA, Mon, 09 Nov): Milwaukee Bucks win 14%, Boston Celtics win 86%; projected score Milwaukee Bucks 105, Boston Celtics 118. Our safest pick: Celtics to win.