Predictions › France › AS Monaco vs AJ Auxerre

Ligue 1Sat 21 Nov, 19:45 France time

AS Monaco vs AJ Auxerre prediction

Stade Louis II

AS MonacoHome

2.36 : 1.04

expected goals

AJ AuxerreAway

66%Monaco

19%Draw

15%Auxerre

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.17

Quick answer

Our prediction for AS Monaco vs AJ Auxerre is AS Monaco to win, with a 66% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17.

Prediction: AS Monaco to win
Chance: 66%
Most likely score: 2-1
Expected goals: AS Monaco 2.4, AJ Auxerre 1.0
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.17
Both teams to score: 59%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

85% chanceFair price 1.172 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

AS Monaco to win and both score

34% chanceFair price 2.941 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives AS Monaco 66%, the draw 19% and AJ Auxerre 15%. The bookmakers agree and make AS Monaco the favourite at 1.39.
2
Recent form
AS Monaco took 8 points from their last 5 games and AJ Auxerre took 4 from 5. AS Monaco come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
AS Monaco won 5 of their last 9 games at home. AJ Auxerre won 2 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
AS Monaco score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.4. AJ Auxerre score 1.4 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of AS Monaco games and 12 of AJ Auxerre games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, AS Monaco won 1 and AJ Auxerre won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended AS Monaco 2, AJ Auxerre 2.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Monacorecent form+1%
Auxerrerecent form-3%

Monaco form D W L D WAuxerre form L L D W LHome edge in this league 23% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

AS Monaco vs AJ Auxerre: AS Monaco are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

AS Monaco host AJ Auxerre in the Ligue 1 on Sat 21 Nov, 19:45 at Stade Louis II. Our prediction for AS Monaco vs AJ Auxerre is AS Monaco to win, with a 66% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17.

AS Monaco form

AS Monaco have 9 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, D, W, newest first.

AJ Auxerre form

AJ Auxerre have 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 33 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. AS Monaco won 1, AJ Auxerre won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished AS Monaco 2, AJ Auxerre 2.

Our call

We expect AS Monaco to score about 2.4 goals and AJ Auxerre about 1.0. That points to AS Monaco to win, with 2-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17. Our bold bet is AS Monaco to win and both score at 2.94.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Monaco	Auxerre
Games played	20	20
Wins	9	7
Draws	6	5
Losses	5	8
Goals scored	33	28
Goals conceded	28	33
Scored per game	1.6	1.4
Conceded per game	1.4	1.6
Home record	5W 3D 1L	5W 3D 2L
Away record	4W 3D 4L	2W 2D 6L
Clean sheets	20%	25%
Both teams scored	70%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
AS Monaco to win	65%	1.54	1.39	-10.2%
A Draw	18%	5.46	5.00	-8.5%
AJ Auxerre to win	14%	7.36	7.00	-4.9%
Over 3.5 goals	41%	2.43	2.20	-9.5%
Under 3.5 goals	52%	1.93	1.61	-16.7%
AS Monaco -1.5	43%	2.30	1.95	-15.3%
AJ Auxerre +1.5	50%	2.01	1.69	-16.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	86%	1.17
Over 2.5 goals	66%	1.52
Over 3.5 goals	44%	2.27
Both teams to score	59%	1.70
AS Monaco or Draw	85%	1.17
AJ Auxerre or Draw	34%	2.97
AS Monaco to win and Over 2.5	50%	2.02
AJ Auxerre to win and Over 2.5	10%	10.20
AS Monaco clean sheet	35%	2.82
AJ Auxerre clean sheet	9%	10.59

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-19.7%

2-09.3%

1-18.7%

3-17.6%

1-07.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

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22 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win AS Monaco vs AJ Auxerre?

Our prediction for AS Monaco vs AJ Auxerre is AS Monaco to win, with a 66% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17.

What is the score prediction for AS Monaco vs AJ Auxerre?

2-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-0 and 1-1. We expect AS Monaco to score 2.4 goals and AJ Auxerre 1.0.

Will both teams score in AS Monaco vs AJ Auxerre?

Both teams to score has a 59% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of AS Monaco last 20 games and 13 of AJ Auxerre last 20.

How are AS Monaco playing?

How are AJ Auxerre playing?

What happened when AS Monaco and AJ Auxerre last met?

It ended AS Monaco 2, AJ Auxerre 2. In the last 2 meetings AS Monaco won 1 and AJ Auxerre won 0.

What is the best bet for AS Monaco vs AJ Auxerre?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.17, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Monaco against Auxerre. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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