Predictions › France › AS Monaco vs Lille

Ligue 1Sun 25 Oct, 14:00 France time

AS Monaco vs Lille prediction

Stade Louis II

AS MonacoHome

1.51 : 1.22

expected goals

LilleAway

43%Monaco

27%Draw

30%Lille

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.32

Quick answer

Our prediction for AS Monaco vs Lille is AS Monaco to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32.

Prediction: AS Monaco to win
Chance: 43%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: AS Monaco 1.5, Lille 1.2
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.32
Both teams to score: 56%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

76% chanceFair price 1.322 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

13% chanceFair price 7.861 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives AS Monaco 43%, the draw 27% and Lille 30%. The bookmakers agree and make AS Monaco the favourite at 2.10.
2
Recent form
AS Monaco took 11 points from their last 5 games and Lille took 6 from 5. AS Monaco come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
AS Monaco won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Lille won 7 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
AS Monaco score 1.9 goals a game and let in 1.5. Lille score 1.3 and let in 0.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of AS Monaco games and 8 of Lille games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, AS Monaco won 0 and Lille won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended AS Monaco 0, Lille 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Monacorecent form+4%
Lillerest between games-5%

Monaco form D W D W WLille form D W L W LHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

AS Monaco vs Lille: AS Monaco shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

AS Monaco host Lille in the Ligue 1 on Sun 25 Oct, 14:00 at Stade Louis II. Our prediction for AS Monaco vs Lille is AS Monaco to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32.

AS Monaco form

AS Monaco have 11 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, W, W, newest first.

Lille form

Lille have 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 19 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. AS Monaco won 0, Lille won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished AS Monaco 0, Lille 1.

Our call

We expect AS Monaco to score about 1.5 goals and Lille about 1.2. That points to AS Monaco to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.86.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Monaco	Lille
Games played	20	20
Wins	11	10
Draws	5	4
Losses	4	6
Goals scored	39	26
Goals conceded	30	19
Scored per game	1.9	1.3
Conceded per game	1.5	0.9
Home record	5W 2D 2L	3W 4D 3L
Away record	6W 3D 2L	7W 0D 3L
Clean sheets	20%	45%
Both teams scored	75%	35%
Over 2.5 goals	70%	40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
AS Monaco to win	43%	2.31	2.10	-9.1%
A Draw	25%	4.00	3.30	-17.6%
Lille to win	28%	3.58	3.40	-5.1%
Over 2.5 goals	52%	1.94	1.67	-14.1%
Under 2.5 goals	45%	2.22	2.10	-5.5%
AS Monaco -0.5	44%	2.25	2.00	-11.1%
Lille +0.5	52%	1.92	1.67	-13.2%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	76%	1.31
Over 2.5 goals	51%	1.94
Over 3.5 goals	29%	3.41
Both teams to score	56%	1.79
AS Monaco or Draw	70%	1.43
Lille or Draw	57%	1.76
AS Monaco to win and Over 2.5	27%	3.75
Lille to win and Over 2.5	18%	5.56
AS Monaco clean sheet	29%	3.40
Lille clean sheet	22%	4.53

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.7%

1-09.1%

2-19.1%

2-07.4%

1-27.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

Premier League

Kylian Mbappe Reveals How Close He Was to Joining Liverpool

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22 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win AS Monaco vs Lille?

Our prediction for AS Monaco vs Lille is AS Monaco to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32.

What is the score prediction for AS Monaco vs Lille?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect AS Monaco to score 1.5 goals and Lille 1.2.

Will both teams score in AS Monaco vs Lille?

Both teams to score has a 56% chance. Both sides scored in 15 of AS Monaco last 20 games and 7 of Lille last 20.

How are AS Monaco playing?

How are Lille playing?

What happened when AS Monaco and Lille last met?

It ended AS Monaco 0, Lille 1. In the last 1 meeting AS Monaco won 0 and Lille won 1.

What is the best bet for AS Monaco vs Lille?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.32, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Monaco against Lille. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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