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Predictions › Conference League › AS Monaco vs SC Freiburg
Conference LeagueThu 22 Oct, 19:00 UTC

AS Monaco vs SC Freiburg prediction

Stade Louis II

AS MonacoHome
1.84 : 1.10
expected goals
SC FreiburgAway
54%Monaco
24%Draw
22%Freiburg
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.29

Quick answer

Our prediction for AS Monaco vs SC Freiburg is AS Monaco to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

Prediction
AS Monaco to win
Chance
54%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
AS Monaco 1.8, SC Freiburg 1.1
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.29
Both teams to score
57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.292 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

AS Monaco to win and Over 2.5
34% chanceFair price 2.911 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives AS Monaco 54%, the draw 24% and SC Freiburg 22%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    AS Monaco took 11 points from their last 5 games and SC Freiburg took 13 from 5. SC Freiburg come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    AS Monaco won 5 of their last 9 games at home. SC Freiburg won 4 of their last 8 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    AS Monaco score 1.9 goals a game and let in 1.5. SC Freiburg score 2.1 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of AS Monaco games and 16 of SC Freiburg games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Monacorecent form+4%
  • Freiburgrecent form+4%
  • Monacorest between games-2%
  • Freiburgrest between games-5%
Monaco form D W D W WFreiburg form D D W W WHome edge in this league 38% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

AS Monaco vs SC Freiburg: AS Monaco are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

AS Monaco host SC Freiburg in the Conference League on Thu 22 Oct, 19:00 at Stade Louis II. Our prediction for AS Monaco vs SC Freiburg is AS Monaco to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

AS Monaco form

AS Monaco have 11 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, W, W, newest first.

SC Freiburg form

SC Freiburg have 12 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 43 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect AS Monaco to score about 1.8 goals and SC Freiburg about 1.1. That points to AS Monaco to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29. Our bold bet is AS Monaco to win and Over 2.5 at 2.91.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

MonacoFreiburg
Games played2020
Wins1112
Draws52
Losses46
Goals scored3943
Goals conceded3027
Scored per game1.92.1
Conceded per game1.51.4
Home record5W 2D 2L8W 1D 3L
Away record6W 3D 2L4W 1D 3L
Clean sheets20%20%
Both teams scored75%65%
Over 2.5 goals70%80%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals80%1.25
Over 2.5 goals56%1.78
Over 3.5 goals34%2.96
Both teams to score57%1.77
AS Monaco or Draw78%1.28
SC Freiburg or Draw46%2.18
AS Monaco to win and Over 2.536%2.78
SC Freiburg to win and Over 2.513%7.43
AS Monaco clean sheet33%2.99
SC Freiburg clean sheet16%6.27

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.4%
2-19.8%
1-09.1%
2-09.0%
3-16.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news
Premier League

Premier League Giants Battle For Freiburg Striker Igor Matanovic

Manchester United, Arsenal, and Chelsea are tracking Freiburg striker Igor Matanovic, while Arsenal's Noni Madueke attracts loan interest.

6 Oct 2026
Premier League

Kylian Mbappe Reveals How Close He Was to Joining Liverpool

Kylian Mbappe has revealed how his mother fell in love with Anfield and urged him to sign for Liverpool before he chose Paris Saint Germain.

22 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win AS Monaco vs SC Freiburg?

Our prediction for AS Monaco vs SC Freiburg is AS Monaco to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

What is the score prediction for AS Monaco vs SC Freiburg?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect AS Monaco to score 1.8 goals and SC Freiburg 1.1.

Will both teams score in AS Monaco vs SC Freiburg?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 15 of AS Monaco last 20 games and 13 of SC Freiburg last 20.

How are AS Monaco playing?

AS Monaco have 11 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, W, W, newest first.

How are SC Freiburg playing?

SC Freiburg have 12 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 43 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for AS Monaco vs SC Freiburg?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.29, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Monaco against Freiburg. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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