Predictions › France › AS Monaco vs Toulouse

Ligue 1Sat 10 Oct, 18:45 France time

AS Monaco vs Toulouse prediction

Stade Louis II

AS MonacoHome

1.91 : 1.13

expected goals

ToulouseAway

55%Monaco

23%Draw

22%Toulouse

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.27

Quick answer

Our prediction for AS Monaco vs Toulouse is AS Monaco to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27.

Prediction: AS Monaco to win
Chance: 55%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: AS Monaco 1.9, Toulouse 1.1
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.27
Both teams to score: 58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

79% chanceFair price 1.272 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

AS Monaco to win and Over 2.5

35% chanceFair price 2.821 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives AS Monaco 55%, the draw 23% and Toulouse 22%. The bookmakers agree and make AS Monaco the favourite at 1.67.
2
Recent form
AS Monaco took 13 points from their last 5 games and Toulouse took 5 from 5. AS Monaco come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
AS Monaco won 6 of their last 9 games at home. Toulouse won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
AS Monaco score 2.0 goals a game and let in 1.4. Toulouse score 1.3 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of AS Monaco games and 11 of Toulouse games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, AS Monaco won 1 and Toulouse won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Toulouse 2, AS Monaco 2.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Monacorecent form+6%
Toulouserecent form-1%

Monaco form W D W W WToulouse form W D L D LHome edge in this league 23% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

AS Monaco vs Toulouse: AS Monaco are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

AS Monaco host Toulouse in the Ligue 1 on Sat 10 Oct, 18:45 at Stade Louis II. Our prediction for AS Monaco vs Toulouse is AS Monaco to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27.

AS Monaco form

AS Monaco have 12 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, W, newest first.

Toulouse form

Toulouse have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. AS Monaco won 1, Toulouse won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Toulouse 2, AS Monaco 2.

Our call

We expect AS Monaco to score about 1.9 goals and Toulouse about 1.1. That points to AS Monaco to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27. Our bold bet is AS Monaco to win and Over 2.5 at 2.82.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Monaco	Toulouse
Games played	20	20
Wins	12	6
Draws	4	5
Losses	4	9
Goals scored	40	25
Goals conceded	29	32
Scored per game	2.0	1.3
Conceded per game	1.4	1.6
Home record	6W 1D 2L	3W 3D 4L
Away record	6W 3D 2L	3W 2D 5L
Clean sheets	20%	15%
Both teams scored	75%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	70%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
AS Monaco to win	52%	1.94	1.67	-13.9%
A Draw	23%	4.36	4.10	-6.1%
Toulouse to win	21%	4.70	4.50	-4.3%
Over 2.5 goals	54%	1.84	1.61	-12.8%
Under 2.5 goals	39%	2.54	2.15	-15.3%
AS Monaco -0.5	53%	1.89	1.61	-15.1%
Toulouse +0.5	41%	2.44	2.10	-14.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	81%	1.23
Over 2.5 goals	59%	1.70
Over 3.5 goals	36%	2.76
Both teams to score	58%	1.71
AS Monaco or Draw	78%	1.28
Toulouse or Draw	45%	2.22
AS Monaco to win and Over 2.5	38%	2.65
Toulouse to win and Over 2.5	14%	7.23
AS Monaco clean sheet	32%	3.11
Toulouse clean sheet	15%	6.77

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.9%

2-19.9%

2-08.7%

1-08.5%

3-16.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

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22 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win AS Monaco vs Toulouse?

Our prediction for AS Monaco vs Toulouse is AS Monaco to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27.

What is the score prediction for AS Monaco vs Toulouse?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 2-0. We expect AS Monaco to score 1.9 goals and Toulouse 1.1.

Will both teams score in AS Monaco vs Toulouse?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 15 of AS Monaco last 20 games and 11 of Toulouse last 20.

How are AS Monaco playing?

How are Toulouse playing?

What happened when AS Monaco and Toulouse last met?

It ended Toulouse 2, AS Monaco 2. In the last 2 meetings AS Monaco won 1 and Toulouse won 0.

What is the best bet for AS Monaco vs Toulouse?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.27, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Monaco against Toulouse. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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