EagleEyeOdds eagleEagleEyeOddsToday's picks
PredictionsBest bets by countryKenyaNigeriaGhanaSouth AfricaUnited KingdomUnited StatesIndiaTanzaniaUgandaZambiaCameroonIvory CoastAll 54 countriesNewsOur recordHow Eagle 2.0 worksResponsible gambling
Predictions › Italy › AS Roma vs Genoa
Serie ASat 17 Oct, 18:45 Italy time

AS Roma vs Genoa prediction

Olimpico

AS RomaHome
2.12 : 0.72
expected goals
GenoaAway
69%AS Roma
20%Draw
11%Genoa
Eagle safe pickAS Roma draw no bet
1.20

Quick answer

Our prediction for AS Roma vs Genoa is AS Roma to win, with a 69% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is AS Roma draw no bet at 1.20.

Prediction
AS Roma to win
Chance
69%
Most likely score
2-0
Expected goals
AS Roma 2.1, Genoa 0.7
Best bet
AS Roma draw no bet at 1.20
Both teams to score
46%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

AS Roma draw no bet
84% chanceFair price 1.202 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

AS Roma to win and Over 2.5
41% chanceFair price 2.431 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives AS Roma 69%, the draw 20% and Genoa 11%. The bookmakers agree and make AS Roma the favourite at 1.30.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    AS Roma took 11 points from their last 5 games and Genoa took 1 from 5. AS Roma come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    AS Roma won 6 of their last 10 games at home. Genoa won 2 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    AS Roma score 2.2 goals a game and let in 1.2. Genoa score 0.8 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of AS Roma games and 8 of Genoa games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, AS Roma won 1 and Genoa won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Genoa 2, AS Roma 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    AS Roma draw no bet has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • AS Romarecent form+4%
  • Genoarecent form-3%
AS Roma form D W D W WGenoa form L W D L LHome edge in this league 11% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

AS Roma vs Genoa: AS Roma are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

AS Roma host Genoa in the Serie A on Sat 17 Oct, 18:45 at Olimpico. Our prediction for AS Roma vs Genoa is AS Roma to win, with a 69% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is AS Roma draw no bet at 1.20.

AS Roma form

AS Roma have 11 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 44 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, W, W, newest first.

Genoa form

Genoa have 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. AS Roma won 1, Genoa won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Genoa 2, AS Roma 1.

Our call

We expect AS Roma to score about 2.1 goals and Genoa about 0.7. That points to AS Roma to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is AS Roma draw no bet at 1.20. Our bold bet is AS Roma to win and Over 2.5 at 2.43.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

AS RomaGenoa
Games played2020
Wins115
Draws54
Losses411
Goals scored4417
Goals conceded2427
Scored per game2.20.8
Conceded per game1.21.4
Home record6W 3D 1L3W 1D 6L
Away record5W 2D 3L2W 3D 5L
Clean sheets45%25%
Both teams scored55%40%
Over 2.5 goals60%40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
AS Roma to win71%1.401.30-7.0%
A Draw20%5.104.90-4.0%
Genoa to win9%11.247.50-33.3%
Over 2.5 goals52%1.911.63-15.0%
Under 2.5 goals41%2.442.15-11.9%
AS Roma -1.545%2.221.83-17.6%
Genoa +1.548%2.071.80-13.0%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals78%1.28
Over 2.5 goals54%1.85
Over 3.5 goals32%3.16
Both teams to score46%2.19
AS Roma or Draw89%1.12
Genoa or Draw31%3.24
AS Roma to win and Over 2.544%2.27
Genoa to win and Over 2.56%17.47
AS Roma clean sheet49%2.06
Genoa clean sheet12%8.29

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-013.1%
1-011.9%
1-19.5%
2-19.5%
3-09.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news
Premier League

Chelsea prepare new January bid for Roma midfielder Manu Kone

Chelsea are ready to renew their interest in Roma midfielder Manu Kone, while Liverpool and Manchester United eye other major targets.

13 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win AS Roma vs Genoa?

Our prediction for AS Roma vs Genoa is AS Roma to win, with a 69% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is AS Roma draw no bet at 1.20.

What is the score prediction for AS Roma vs Genoa?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 1-1. We expect AS Roma to score 2.1 goals and Genoa 0.7.

Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Genoa?

Both teams to score has a 46% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of AS Roma last 20 games and 8 of Genoa last 20.

How are AS Roma playing?

AS Roma have 11 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 44 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, W, W, newest first.

How are Genoa playing?

Genoa have 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, L, L, newest first.

What happened when AS Roma and Genoa last met?

It ended Genoa 2, AS Roma 1. In the last 2 meetings AS Roma won 1 and Genoa won 1.

What is the best bet for AS Roma vs Genoa?

AS Roma draw no bet at 1.20, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in AS Roma against Genoa. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
  • 18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
  • No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
  • Betting can harm you. If it stops being fun, if you chase losses, or if you hide it from people close to you, stop and get help. Free and private support is available from BeGambleAware, GamCare and Gamblers Anonymous. Read our responsible gambling page for tools that block betting sites.

Full terms are on our disclaimer and terms pages.

Note: Never stake money you need for rent, food, bills or anyone who depends on you.