Predictions › Champions League › AS Roma vs Real Madrid

Champions LeagueWed 14 Oct, 19:00 UTC

AS Roma vs Real Madrid prediction

Olimpico

AS RomaHome

1.43 : 1.56

expected goals

Real MadridAway

34%AS Roma

26%Draw

40%Real Madrid

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.28

Quick answer

Our prediction for AS Roma vs Real Madrid is Real Madrid to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

Prediction: Real Madrid to win
Chance: 40%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: AS Roma 1.4, Real Madrid 1.6
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.28
Both teams to score: 61%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

78% chanceFair price 1.282 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

AS Roma to win

33% chancePrice 3.45+13.9% value2 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives AS Roma 34%, the draw 26% and Real Madrid 40%. The bookmakers agree and make Real Madrid the favourite at 1.95.
2
Recent form
AS Roma took 11 points from their last 5 games and Real Madrid took 9 from 5. AS Roma come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
AS Roma won 6 of their last 10 games at home. Real Madrid won 4 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
AS Roma score 2.2 goals a game and let in 1.2. Real Madrid score 2.0 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of AS Roma games and 13 of Real Madrid games in that run.
5
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

AS Romarecent form+4%
Real Madridrecent form+1%

AS Roma form D W D W WReal Madrid form L W W W LHome edge in this league 32% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

AS Roma vs Real Madrid: Real Madrid shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

AS Roma host Real Madrid in the Champions League on Wed 14 Oct, 19:00 at Olimpico. Our prediction for AS Roma vs Real Madrid is Real Madrid to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

AS Roma form

AS Roma have 11 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 44 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, W, W, newest first.

Real Madrid form

Real Madrid have 12 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 41 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect AS Roma to score about 1.4 goals and Real Madrid about 1.6. That points to Real Madrid to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28. Our bold bet is AS Roma to win at 3.45.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	AS Roma	Real Madrid
Games played	20	20
Wins	11	12
Draws	5	2
Losses	4	6
Goals scored	44	41
Goals conceded	24	26
Scored per game	2.2	2.0
Conceded per game	1.2	1.3
Home record	6W 3D 1L	8W 1D 1L
Away record	5W 2D 3L	4W 1D 5L
Clean sheets	45%	20%
Both teams scored	55%	70%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
AS Roma to win	33%	3.03	3.45	+13.9%
A Draw	25%	4.03	3.80	-5.6%
Real Madrid to win	38%	2.65	1.95	-26.5%
Over 3.5 goals	41%	2.46	2.00	-18.8%
Under 3.5 goals	54%	1.85	1.74	-5.9%
AS Roma +0.5	51%	1.97	1.77	-10.0%
Real Madrid -0.5	44%	2.28	1.83	-19.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	81%	1.24
Over 2.5 goals	58%	1.74
Over 3.5 goals	35%	2.85
Both teams to score	61%	1.64
AS Roma or Draw	60%	1.67
Real Madrid or Draw	66%	1.52
AS Roma to win and Over 2.5	23%	4.40
Real Madrid to win and Over 2.5	27%	3.74
AS Roma clean sheet	21%	4.76
Real Madrid clean sheet	24%	4.19

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.9%

1-28.7%

2-18.0%

0-17.1%

1-06.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

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3 Oct 2026

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1 Oct 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win AS Roma vs Real Madrid?

Our prediction for AS Roma vs Real Madrid is Real Madrid to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

What is the score prediction for AS Roma vs Real Madrid?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect AS Roma to score 1.4 goals and Real Madrid 1.6.

Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Real Madrid?

Both teams to score has a 61% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of AS Roma last 20 games and 14 of Real Madrid last 20.

How are AS Roma playing?

How are Real Madrid playing?

What is the best bet for AS Roma vs Real Madrid?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.28, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in AS Roma against Real Madrid. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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